Berit Gehrke

The Middle Awash Basin (MAB) faces severe ecological degradation due to the rapid spread of the invasive Prosopis juliflora (P. juliflora), which threatens native vegetation. The study characterizes and predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of rangelands affected by P. juliflora in the MAB. Using three Landsat images from ETM+ (2003) and OLI (2013 and 2023), we applied a supervised random forest (RF) classification technique processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. This classification was integrated into an intensity analysis to examine temporal transitions between land use and land cover (LULC) classes. The predictive modeling included 12 variables, including climatic, topographic, edaphic, phenological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors, using Terrset 2020. Using multitemporal satellite remote sensing, machine learning (ML), and cellular automata markov chain (CA-MC) methods, LULC was mapped from 2003 to 2023, and future scenarios were predicted up to 2060. The P. juliflora coverage quadrupled from 2.16% in 2003 to 8.61% in 2023, while rangelands were decreased by more than 25%. Models predict that P. juliflora could occupy 22% of the land by 2060 and over 40% of rangeland areas as of 2003, expanding two to three times faster than the intensities of the LULC baseline changes, primarily targeting rangelands. Our analysis is based on a single business-as-usual scenario; however, it highlights the worrying invasion patterns. The study's limitations include the absence of multiple scenarios and climate model integration, which could offer further insights into future invasion dynamics. Nonetheless, our findings indicate that the MAB faces imminent widespread ecosystem transformation without prompt action, which will severely affect pastoral livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. Therefore, we advocate for a management strategy involving prevention, eradication, and restoration measures, underpinned by policy reforms and stakeholder cooperation.

In this study, we documented and compared similarities of the alien plant species richness between South Africa represented by three provinces: Free State (FS), Eastern Cape (EC), and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), and Lesotho—an important water source area for southern Africa. We tested the prediction that alien plant species in Lesotho are a subset of South Africa’s species partly because of the short geographical distances between the provinces and Lesotho, and environmental similarity. Overall, 7124 records containing 1040 individual alien plant species belonging to 147 families were documented. South Africa had significantly greater alien plant species records than Lesotho. Of 147 plant families, 44 were represented in both countries, and 101 families did not occur in Lesotho. Against the study prediction, the Geraniaceae and Orobanchaceae families occurred in Lesotho but not in three provinces. KwaZulu-Natal had a significantly greater number of species than Lesotho but not the other provinces, and 49% of species in three provinces originated from the Americas (i.e. South and North), Europe, and Asia. A similar pattern was observed in Lesotho. Woody and herbaceous alien plants, habitat transformers, dominated three provinces, while herbaceous species dominated Lesotho. The 62% of 1040 alien species were not listed in the South African national regulations, indicating their negative impacts are also unknown in the study region. Plant nurseries were a dominant species dispersal pathway in South Africa, while home gardens were prominent in Lesotho. We conclude that invasive plant species constitute a future threat to the Lesotho Drakensberg highlands water catchments and recommend prioritising their management and improving cross-border biosecurity between Lesotho and South Africa.

Since 1997 Tanzania has undertaken a process to identify and declare a network of Nature Forest Reserves (NFRs) with high biodiversity values, from within its existing portfolio of national Forest Reserves, with 16 new NFRs declared since 2015. The current network of 22 gazetted NFRs covered 948,871 hectares in 2023. NFRs now cover a range of Tanzanian habitat types, including all main forest types—wet, seasonal, and dry—as well as wetlands and grasslands. NFRs contain at least 178 of Tanzania’s 242 endemic vertebrate species, of which at least 50% are threatened with extinction, and 553 Tanzanian endemic plant taxa (species, subspecies, and varieties), of which at least 50% are threatened. NFRs also support 41 single-site endemic vertebrate species and 76 single-site endemic plant taxa. Time series analysis of management effectiveness tracking tool (METT) data shows that NFR management effectiveness is increasing, especially where donor funds have been available. Improved management and investment have resulted in measurable reductions of some critical threats in NFRs. Still, ongoing challenges remain to fully contain issues of illegal logging, charcoal production, firewood, pole-cutting, illegal hunting and snaring of birds and mammals, fire, wildlife trade, and the unpredictable impacts of climate change. Increased tourism, diversified revenue generation and investment schemes, involving communities in management, and stepping up control measures for remaining threats are all required to create a network of economically self-sustaining NFRs able to conserve critical biodiversity values.

The information on ecological niches of the Marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea (A. Rich.) Horchst. subspecies are needed for sustainable management of this tree, considering its nutritional, economic, and ecological benefits. However, despite Tanzania being regarded as a global genetic center of diversity of S. birrea, information on the subspecies ecological niches is lacking. We aimed to model ecological niches of S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates. Ecological niches under the current climate were modelled by using ecological niche models in MaxEnt using climatic, edaphic, and topographical variables, and subspecies occurrence data. The Hadley Climate Center and National Center for Atmospheric Research's Earth System Models were used to predict ecological niches under the medium and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080. Area under the curves (AUCs) were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The results show that the models were robust, with AUCs of 0.85–0.95. Annual and seasonal precipitation, elevation, and soil cation exchange capacity are the key environmental factors that define the ecological niches of the S. birrea subspecies. Ecological niches of subsp. caffra, multifoliata, and birrea are currently found in 30, 22, and 21 regions, and occupy 184 814 km2, 139 918 km2, and 28 446 km2 of Tanzania's land area respectively, which will contract by 0.4–44% due to climate change. Currently, 31–51% of ecological niches are under Tanzania’s protected areas network. The findings are important in guiding the development of conservation and domestication strategies for the S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania.

Understanding the interactions between abiotic (environmental and anthropogenic) factors and species diversity and distribution patterns is fundamental to improving the ecological representativeness of biodiversity management tools such as protected areas (PAs). However, significant knowledge gaps remain about how species’ ecological and evolutionary opportunities are associated with abiotic factors, especially in biodiversity-rich but economically ill-equipped countries such as Kenya. Here, we explored the interactions of terrestrial mammal diversity patterns and abiotic factors across species groups and ecoregions in Kenya. We coupled data on terrestrial mammal occurrences, phylogeny, functional traits, and environmental predictors in Kenya to derive multiple diversity indices, encompassing species richness and phylogenetic and functional richness, and mean pairwise and nearest taxon distances. We explored the interactions of these indices with several abiotic factors using multivariate regression analyses while adjusting for spatial autocorrelation. The results showed weak correlations between species richness versus the phylogenetic and functional diversity indices. The best-fit models explained variable proportions of diversity indices between species groups and ecoregions and consistently retained annual temperature and precipitation averages and seasonality and human footprint as the strongest predictors. Compared to the species-poor xeric northern and eastern Kenya regions, the predictors had weak associations with diversity variances in the species-rich mesic western and central Kenya regions, similar to focal species groups compared to ordinal classifications and the combined species pool. These findings illustrate that climate and human footprint interplay determine multiple facets of terrestrial mammal diversity patterns in Kenya. Accordingly, curbing human activities degrading long-term climatic regimes is vital to ensuring the ecological integrity of terrestrial mammal communities and should be integrated into biodiversity management frameworks. For a holistic representation of critical conservation areas, biodiversity managements should also prioritize terrestrial mammal phylogenetic and functional attributes besides species richness.

Climate change is one of the most serious threats to global crops production at present and it will continue to be the largest threat in the future worldwide. Knowing how climate change affects crop productivity might help sustainability and crop improvement efforts. Under existing and projected climate change scenarios (2050s and 2070s in Ethiopia), the effect of global warming on the distribution of V. radiata and V. unguiculata was investigated. MaxEnt models were used to predict the current and future distribution pattern changes of these crops in Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios (i.e., lowest (RCP 2.6), moderate (RCP 4.5), and extreme (RCP 8.5)) for the years 2050s and 2070s. The study includes 81 and 68 occurrence points for V. radiata and V. unguiculata, respectively, along with 22 environmental variables. The suitability maps indicate that the Beneshangul Gumuz, Oromia, Amhara, SNNPR, and Tigray regions are the major Ethiopian regions with the potential to produce V. radiata, while Amhara, Gambella, Oromia, SNNPR, and Tigray are suitable for producing V. unguiculata. The model prediction for V. radiata habitat ranges distribution in Ethiopia indicated that 1.69%, 4.27%, 11.25% and 82.79% are estimated to be highly suitable, moderately suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable, respectively. On the other hand, the distribution of V. unguiculata is predicted to have 1.27%, 3.07%, 5.22%, and 90.44% habitat ranges that are highly suitable, moderately suitable, less suitable, and unsuitable, respectively, under the current climate change scenario by the year (2050s and 2070s) in Ethiopia. Among the environmental variables, precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16), solar radiation index (SRI), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) are discovered to be the most effective factors for defining habitat suitability for V. radiata, while precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16), temperature annual range (Bio7) and precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17) found to be better habitat suitability indicator for V. unguiculata in Ethiopia. The result indicates that these variables were more relevant in predicting suitable habitat for these crops in Ethiopia. A future projection predicts that the suitable distribution region will become increasingly fragmented. In general, the study provides a scientific basis of suitable agro-ecological habitat for V. radiata and V. unguiculata for long-term crop management and production improvement in Ethiopia. Therefore, projections of current and future climate change impacts on such crops are vital to reduce the risk of crop failure and to identify the potential productive areas in the country.

Madagascar’s unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar’s terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

Aim This study aimed to investigate the distribution patterns of plant diversity in Kenya, how climatic fluctuations and orogeny shaped them, and the formation of its β-diversity. Location Kenya, East Africa. Taxon Angiosperms. Methods We quantified patterns of turnover and nestedness components of phylogenetic β-diversity for angiosperm species among neighbouring sites using a well-resolved phylogenetic tree and extensive distribution records from public databases and other published sources. We applied clustering methods to delineate biota based on pairwise similarities among multiple sites and used a random assembly null model to assess the effects of species abundance distribution on phylogenetic β-diversity. Results The phylogenetic turnover of the Kenyan flora, intersecting with the biodiversity hotspots Eastern Afromontane, Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, and Horn of Africa, shows a non-monotonic pattern along a latitudinal gradient that is strongly structured into volcanic and coastal areas. The other areas are mainly dominated by phylogenetic nestedness, even in the eastern part of the equatorial region parallel to the volcanic area. Phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic structure analyses explain the mechanism of the observed phylogenetic turnover and nestedness patterns. We identified five phytogeographical regions in Kenya: the Mandera, Turkana, Volcanic, Pan Coastal and West Highland Regions. Conclusions Variations in turnover gradient and coexistence are highly dependent on the regional biogeographical history resulting from climatic fluctuations and long-lasting orogeny, which jointly shaped the biodiversity patterns of the Kenyan flora. The nestedness component dominated climatically unstable regions and is presumed to have been caused by heavy local species extinction and recolonization from the Volcanic Region. The high turnover component in climatically stable regions may have preserved old lineages and the prevalence of endemic species within narrow ranges.

Aim: Due to the sessile nature of flowering plants, movements to new geographical areas occur mainly during seed dispersal. Frugivores tend to be efficient dispersers because animals move within the boundaries of their preferable niches, so seeds are more likely to be transported to environments tha…

Aim: Given the importance of environmental heterogeneity as a driver of species richness through its effects on species diversification and coexistence, we asked whether the dramatic difference in species richness per unit area between two similar Mediterranean‐type biodiversity hotspots is explaine…