Christopher Tyrrell

Invasive sandburs (Cenchrus spp.), tropical and subtropical plants, are preferred in grasslands and agricultural ecosystems worldwide, causing significant crop production losses and reducing native biodiversity. Integrating phylogenetic relatedness and potentially suitable habitats (PSHs) to identify areas at risk of invasion is critical for prioritizing management efforts and supporting decisions on early warning and surveillance for sandbur invasions. However, despite risk assessments for individual Cenchrus species, the combined analysis of suitable habitats and phylogenetic relationships remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to assess the invasion risk regions—including PSHs, species richness (SR), and phylogenetic structure—of eight invasive and potentially invasive sandburs in China, to quantify their niche overlap and identify driving factors. Our results showed that the phylogenetic distance of potentially invasive sandburs was closely related to invasive sandburs. Especially, three potentially invasive sandburs, C. ciliaris, C. setigerus, and C. myosuroides, possessed invasion potential resulting from close phylogenetic relatedness and high climatic suitability compared with invasive sandburs. The PSHs for invasive sandburs were distributed in wider regions except northwest China and had higher suitability to different environmental conditions. Potentially invasive sandburs were primarily located in southwestern and southern China driven by precipitation, especially, being inspected in Guangdong, Hainan, and Yunnan on numerous occasions, or potentially introduced in Guangxi, Taiwan, and Fujian for sandburs invasion hotspots. The phylogenetic clustering for eight sandburs occurred in the eastern, center, and southern coastal China, where higher SR in distribution was correlated with invasion hotspots. The SR and phylogenetic relatedness metrics were related to temperature and topographic variables. Totally, the expansion and invasion risk could be increased toward higher latitudes under future global warming. These findings offer novel insights for the prevention and management of sandburs invasions.

Nonnative invasive plants (weeds) negatively impact native ecosystems, and their effects are likely to increase with continuing global trade. Biological weed control has been employed as a cost-effective and sustainable management option for weeds in the USA since 1902. Biological control programs require careful prioritization of target weeds to ensure the most appropriate targets are selected to obtain the greatest beneficial outcomes with available resources. The Biological Control Target Selection (BCTS) system was developed by researchers in South Africa as an objective, transparent approach to prioritizing new weed biological control targets. The BCTS system was recently modified and applied to 295 state-regulated weeds in the western USA for which no biological control agents have yet been released. This paper presents the results of that application, identifying the most suitable candidates for new biological control programs as well as problematic weeds for which the likelihood of successful biological control is low.Top-ranked species in the western USA are biennial or perennial weeds that occur in stable habitats, are established in more than one state, have traits deemed difficult to control with conventional methods, have large negative impacts and no conflicts of interest outside of the horticultural industry, and have substantial information available on potential biocontrol agents. Fifteen of the 20 top-ranked species are already targets of ongoing biological control programs in the USA. When species with current programs are excluded from the analysis, the next 20 top-ranked species largely differ by having less information available on potential biological control agents and having native or economically important congeners in the USA. Results from this framework provide valuable insights to the prioritization of current and future biocontrol research programs in the western USA.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.

Premise Vertical surfaces in urban environments represent a potential expansion of niche space for lithophytic fern species. There are, however, few records of differential success rates of fern species in urban environments.MethodsThe occurrence rates of 16 lithophytic fern species native to the northeastern USA in 14 biomes, including four urban environments differentiated by percentage of impervious surfaces, were evaluated. In addition, the natural macroclimatic ranges of these species were analyzed to test whether significant differences existed in climatic tolerance between species that occur in urban environments and species that do not.ResultsThree species appear to preferentially occur in urban environments, two species may facultatively occur in urban environments, and the remaining 11 species preferentially occur in nondeveloped rural environments. The natural range of fern species that occur in urban environments had higher summer temperatures than the range of species that do not, whereas other macroclimatic variables, notably winter temperatures and precipitation, were less important or insignificant.ConclusionsVertical surfaces in urban environments may represent novel niche space for some native lithophytic fern species in northeastern USA. However, success in this environment depends, in part, on tolerance of the urban heat island effect, especially heating of impervious surfaces in summer.

Predicting the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced into new areas remains one of conservation’s greatest challenges and, consequently, it is necessary to adopt adequate management measures to mitigate the effects of future biological invasions. At present, not much information is available on the areas in which non-native aquatic plant species could establish themselves in the Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models were used to predict the potential invasion risk of (1) non-native aquatic plant species already established in the peninsula (32 species) and (2) those with the potential to invade the peninsula (40 species). The results revealed that the Iberian Peninsula contains a number of areas capable of hosting non-native aquatic plant species. Areas under anthropogenic pressure are at the greatest risk of invasion, and the variable most related to invasion risk is temperature. The results of this work were used to create the Invasion Risk Atlas for Alien Aquatic Plants in the Iberian Peninsula, a novel online resource that provides information about the potential distribution of non-native aquatic plant species. The atlas and this article are intended to serve as reference tools for the development of public policies, management regimes, and control strategies aimed at the prevention, mitigation, and eradication of non-native aquatic plant species.

The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum , and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes , that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species ( P. officinarum ) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species ( G. lucidum ) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges.

Nitellopsis obtusa was first documented in the St. Lawrence River in 1974 and likely spread via human-assisted activity to at-least seven states in the U.S.A. This invasive macroalga is a nuisance for native plants, animals, and recreational activities. Because eradication of invasive species is more difficult after establishment, early detection plans are an important tool in preventing and slowing their spread. Macro-scale data analyses have improved our ability to predict changes in freshwater ecosystems and are important to assess and control invasive species. We developed species distribution models (random forest, boosted regression trees, and Maxent) using presence records of N. obtusa coupled with publicly available in-lake temperature and chemistry (bicarbonate and chloride) model data and landscape scale lake watershed characteristics for over 48,000 individual lakes in the Midwest and northeast U.S.A. January and July–August–September growing degrees days, bicarbonate concentrations, and chloride concentrations correlate with high relative likelihood of occurrence. Our analyses found N. obtusa likelihood of occurrence is high in developed, lake-dense regions with ~ 2000 July–August–September growing degree days, 1–3 mMol bicarbonate, and > 10 mg L −1 chloride. Based on relative likelihood of occurrence predictions, N. obtusa has the potential to spread to new lakes within Midwest and northeast USA states that currently do not have known populations of N. obtusa , including inland lakes in Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Many studies have quantified ecological impacts of individual foundation species (FS). However, emerging data suggest that FS often co‐occur, potentially inhibiting or facilitating one another, thereby causing indirect, cascading effects on surrounding communities. Furthermore, global warming is accelerating, but little is known about how interactions between co‐occurring FS vary with temperature.Shallow aquatic sedimentary systems are often dominated by three types of FS: slower‐growing clonal angiosperms, faster‐growing solitary seaweeds, and shell‐forming filter‐ and deposit‐feeding bivalves. Here, we tested the impacts of one FS on another by analyzing manipulative interaction experiments from 148 papers with a global meta‐analysis.We calculated 1,942 (non‐independent) Hedges’ g effect sizes, from 11,652 extracted values over performance responses, such as abundances, growths or survival of FS, and their associated standard deviations and replication levels. Standard aggregation procedures generated 511 independent Hedges’ g that was classified into six types of reciprocal impacts between FS.We found that (i) seaweeds had consistent negative impacts on angiosperms across performance responses, organismal sizes, experimental approaches, and ecosystem types; (ii) angiosperms and bivalves generally had positive impacts on each other (e.g., positive effects of angiosperms on bivalves were consistent across organismal sizes and experimental approaches, but angiosperm effect on bivalve growth and bivalve effect on angiosperm abundance were not significant); (iii) bivalves positively affected seaweeds (particularly on growth responses); (iv) there were generally no net effects of seaweeds on bivalves (except for positive effect on growth) or angiosperms on seaweeds (except for positive effect on ‘other processes’); and (v) bivalve interactions with other FS were typically more positive at higher temperatures, but angiosperm‐seaweed interactions were not moderated by temperature.Synthesis: Despite variations in experimental and spatiotemporal conditions, the stronger positive interactions at higher temperatures suggest that facilitation, particularly involving bivalves, may become more important in a future warmer world. Importantly, addressing research gaps, such as the scarcity of FS interaction experiments from tropical and freshwater systems and for less studied species, as well as testing for density‐dependent effects, could better inform aquatic ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts and broaden our knowledge of FS interactions in the Anthropocene.

Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas.The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas.Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on shaping invasive alien plant occurrence across three biogeographic regions (Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean) and realms (terrestrial and aquatic) in Italy. We disentangled the role of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on invasive alien plant distribution and projected invasion risk maps. We compared the risk posed by invasive alien plants inside and outside protected areas.Invasive alien plant distribution varied across biogeographic regions and realms and unevenly threatens protected areas. As an alien's occurrence and risk on a national scale are linked with abiotic factors followed by propagule pressure, their local distribution in protected areas is shaped by propagule pressure and biotic filters. The proposed modelling framework for the assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien plants across spatial scales and under different protection regimes represents an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice in conservation planning helping to identify scale, site, and species-specific priorities of management, monitoring and control actions. Based on solid theory and on free geographic information, it has great potential for application to wider networks of protected areas in the world and to any invasive alien plant, aiding improved management strategies claimed by the environmental legislation and national and global strategies.

Paleoclimate reconstructions can provide a window into the environmental conditions in Earth history when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than today. In the eastern USA, paleoclimate reconstructions are sparse, because terrestrial sedimentary deposits are rare. Despite this, the eastern USA has the largest population and population density in North America, and understanding the effects of current and future climate change is of vital importance. Here, we provide terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions of the eastern USA from Miocene fossil floras. Additionally, we compare proxy paleoclimate reconstructions from the warmest period in the Miocene, the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), to those of an MCO Earth System Model. Reconstructed Miocene temperatures and precipitation north of 35°N are higher than modern. In contrast, south of 35°N, temperatures and precipitation are similar to today, suggesting a poleward amplification effect in eastern North America. Reconstructed Miocene rainfall seasonality was predominantly higher than modern, regardless of latitude, indicating greater variability in intra-annual moisture transport. Reconstructed climates are almost uniformly in the temperate seasonal forest biome, but heterogeneity of specific forest types is evident. Reconstructed Miocene terrestrial temperatures from the eastern USA are lower than modeled temperatures and coeval Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, reconstructed rainfall is consistent with modeled rainfall. Our results show that during the Miocene, climate was most different from modern in the northeastern states, and may suggest a drastic reduction in the meridional temperature gradient along the North American east coast compared to today.