Greg Watkins-Colwell

Climate change is expected to cause the extinction of vulnerable species and reduce available habitat for others. Freshwater fishes are particularly vulnerable considering they are confined to habitats that are disjunct or prone to fragmentation on the landscape. The alligator gar ( Atractosteus spatula ) is a species that relies on specific habitat conditions, including water temperature ranges from 20 to 30 °C and flooded vegetation, for successful spawning and recruitment and is likely to be impacted by changes in climate. We created a species distribution model to provide insight about the projected range for alligator gar in the USA under four different climate change outcomes. Our models suggest that the most suitable habitat will change from where alligator gar currently dwell and shift northward and slightly east by 2080. Under the most severe climate scenario, the centroid for the alligator gar range is projected to shift to the north-northeast, nearly 900 km from the current location in central Louisiana, to south-central Illinois. Freshwater fish have limited dispersal capabilities, and alligator gar will likely be unable to populate newly suitable habitats without translocations by fishery managers. Suitable habitat is projected to decline across alligator gar’s current range, and it is plausible that extirpation will occur regionally. However, the initial impacts of decreasing suitability may be overlooked, considering that alligator gar are a long-lived species and larger, more mature individuals will likely persist through the end of their life span across the current range even as suitable habitat decreases.

Male frogs emit stereotypical advertisement calls to attract mates and deter conspecific rivals. The evolution of these calls is thought to be linked to anatomical constraints and the acoustic characteristics of their surroundings. The acoustic adaptation hypothesis (AAH) posits that species evolve calls that maximize propagation distance and reduce signal degradation in the environment where they are emitted. We applied phylogenetic comparative analyses to study the association of body size, vegetation density, type of aquatic ecosystem, and calling site on the evolution of acoustic traits in Cophomantini, a large radiation of Neotropical treefrogs (Hylidae). We obtained and analyzed body size, acoustic, and habitat data from a total of 112 species (58% of Cophomantini), using the most inclusive available phylogeny. We found a significant negative correlation between peak frequency, body size, and calling site, but contrary to the predictions of the AAH, we did not find support for associations among call traits and environmental characteristics. Although spectral allometry is explained by an anatomical constraint, it could also be maintained by female choice. We recommend that future studies strive to incorporate factors such as female mate preferences, eavesdropping by predators or parasites, and genetic drift.

Understanding the factors affecting species distributions is a central topic in ecology and biogeography. However, most research on this topic has focused on species inhabiting terrestrial environments. At broad scales, abiotic variables consistently serve as primary determinants of species’ distributions. In this study, we investigated the explanatory power of different abiotic variables in determining the distribution patterns of sea snakes on a global scale. Additionally, as the boundaries of realized thermal niches have significant implications for the ecology of species and their geographic distributions, we evaluated the asymmetry of realized thermal limits (i.e., differences in variances between the upper and lower limits of the realized thermal niche). We obtained 10 marine environmental variables from global databases along with >5000 occurrence records for 51 sea snake species in 4 genera across the group’s entire known geographic range. Using these data, we employed correlative ecological niche modeling to analyze the influence of the individual variables in explaining species’ distributions. To estimate the realized thermal limits of each species, we extracted the mean, minimum, and maximum temperature values at four depths (superficial, mean benthic, minimum benthic, and maximum benthic) for each occurrence record of the species. We then evaluated the asymmetry of the realized thermal niche by measuring and comparing the variances in the upper and lower limits. Both analyses (the importance of variables and realized thermal limit asymmetry) were performed at three taxonomic levels (sea snakes as a lineage of marine-adapted elapids [true sea snakes + sea kraits], subfamily, and genus) and two spatial resolutions. Overall, we found that temperature, silicate, nitrate, salinity, and phosphate concentrations were the most influential factors in explaining the spatial distribution patterns of sea snakes, regardless of taxonomic level or spatial resolution. Similarly, we observed that the realized thermal limits were asymmetric, with a higher variance in the lower limits, and that asymmetry decreased as the taxonomic level and spatial resolution increased.

Islands are some of the most biodiverse places on earth, but they are also hotspots of biodiversity loss. The coastline of Florida, U.S.A., is surrounded by thousands of islands, many of which are home to species that occur nowhere else. A rapidly emerging threat to these low-lying islands is inundation as sea levels rise. The capacity of island-dwelling species to adapt to climate change and sea level rise may be limited because many species do not have the ability to shift their distribution off the island to track favorable conditions. We assessed the vulnerability of Florida’s islands to inundation from sea level rise and estimated the terrestrial biodiversity on Florida’s islands that could be lost. Our models predicted that by 2100, over 80% and up to 90% of Florida’s islands could be completely inundated from sea level rise, depending on the sea level rise projection (1.2 m or 2.2 m). Of the 85 mammalian, reptilian, and amphibian species on our subset list of Florida’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need, over half occur on Florida’s islands for at least part of their range, highlighting the importance of these islands for housing Florida’s rich biodiversity. Notably, at least 12 mammal species and 7 reptile species have their entire distribution on Florida’s islands, and this count is likely an underestimate. Projections of future sea level rise mean that these island-endemic species face the threat of extinction in the wild if their island habitat is submerged.

Globally, vector‐borne diseases are increasing in distribution and frequency, affecting humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Science‐based management and prevention of these diseases requires a sound understanding of the distribution and environmental requirements of the vectors and hosts involved in disease transmission. Integrated Species Distribution Models (ISDM) account for diverse data types through hierarchical modeling and represent a significant advancement in species distribution modeling. We assessed the distribution of the soft tick subspecies Ornithodoros turicata americanus. This tick species is a potential vector of African swine fever virus (ASFV), a pathogen responsible for an ongoing global epizootic that threatens agroindustry worldwide. Given the novelty of this method, we compared the results to a conventional Maxent SDM and validated the results through data partitioning. Our input for the model consisted of systematically collected detection data from 591 sampled field sites and 12 historical species records, as well as four variables describing climatic and soil characteristics. We found that a combination of climatic variables describing seasonality and temperature extremes, along with the amount of sand in the soil, determined the predicted intensity of occurrence of this tick species. When projected in geographic space, this distribution model predicted 62% of Florida as suitable habitat for this tick species. The ISDM presented a higher TSS and AUC than the Maxent conventional model, while sensitivity was similar between both models. Our case example shows the utility of ISDMs in disease ecology studies and highlights the broad range of geographic suitability for this important disease vector. These results provide important foundational information to inform future risk assessment work for tick‐borne relapsing fever surveillance and potential ASF introduction and maintenance in the United States.

Island ecosystems have significant conservation value owing to their higher endemic biotas. Moreover, studies of regional communities that compare differences in species composition (species dissimilarity) among islands and the mainland suggest that community assembly on islands is different from that on the mainland. However, the uniqueness of island biotic assembly has been little studied at the global scale, nor have phylogenetic information or alien species been considered in these patterns. We evaluate taxonomic and phylogenetic change from one community to the next, focusing on differences in species composition between mainland-mainland (M-M) pairs compared to differences between mainland-island pairs (M-I) and between island-island pairs (I-I), using herpetofauna on islands and adjacent mainland areas worldwide. Our analyses detect greater taxonomic and phylogenetic dissimilarity for M-I and I-I comparisons than predicted by M-M model, indicating different island herpetofauna assembly patterns compared with mainland counterparts across the world. However, this higher M-I dissimilarity has been significantly decreased after considering alien species. Our results provide global evidence on the importance of island biodiversity conservation from the aspect of both the taxonomic and phylogenetic uniqueness of island biotic assembly.

We assessed changes in fundamental climate‐niche space for lizard and snake species in western North America under modeled climate scenarios to inform natural resource managers of possible shifts in species distributions. We generated eight distribution models for each of 130 snake and lizard species in western North America under six time‐by‐climate scenarios. We combined the highest‐performing models per species into a single ensemble model for each scenario. Maps were generated from the ensemble models to depict climate‐niche space for each species and scenario. Patterns of species richness based on climate suitability and niche shifts were calculated from the projections at the scale of the entire study area and individual states and provinces, from Canada to Mexico. Squamate species' climate‐niche space for the recent‐time climate scenario and published known ranges were highly correlated (r = 0.81). Overall, reptile climate‐niche space was projected to move northward in the future. Sixty‐eight percent of species were projected to expand their current climate‐niche space rather than to shift, contract, or remain stable. Only 8.5% of species were projected to lose climate‐niche space in the future, and these species primarily occurred in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. We found few species were projected to lose all suitable climate‐niche space at the state or province level, although species were often predicted to occupy novel areas, such as at higher elevations. Most squamate species were projected to increase their climate‐niche space in future climate scenarios. As climate niches move northward, species are predicted to cross administrative borders, resulting in novel conservation issues for local landowners and natural resource agencies. However, information on species dispersal abilities, landscape connectivity, biophysical tolerances, and habitat suitability is needed to contextualize predictions relative to realized future niche expansions.

Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates and are in dire need of conservation intervention to ensure their continued survival. They exhibit unique features including a high diversity of reproductive strategies, permeable and specialized skin capable of producing toxins and antimicrobial compounds, multiple genetic mechanisms of sex determination and in some lineages, the ability to regenerate limbs and organs. Although genomic approaches would shed light on these unique traits and aid conservation, sequencing and assembly of amphibian genomes has lagged behind other taxa due to their comparatively large genome sizes. Fortunately, the development of long‐read sequencing technologies and initiatives has led to a recent burst of new amphibian genome assemblies. Although growing, the field of amphibian genomics suffers from the lack of annotation resources, tools for working with challenging genomes and lack of high‐quality assemblies in multiple clades of amphibians. Here, we analyse 51 publicly available amphibian genomes to evaluate their usefulness for functional genomics research. We report considerable variation in genome assembly quality and completeness and report some of the highest transposable element and repeat contents of any vertebrate. Additionally, we detected an association between transposable element content and climatic variables. Our analysis provides evidence of conserved genome synteny despite the long divergence times of this group, but we also highlight inconsistencies in chromosome naming and orientation across genome assemblies. We discuss sequencing gaps in the phylogeny and suggest key targets for future sequencing endeavours. Finally, we propose increased investment in amphibian genomics research to promote their conservation.

AbstractTrue poison-dart frogs (Phyllobates, Dendrobatidae) evolved the ability to secrete batrachotoxins, the most powerful alkaloids known to date. The genus comprises five species whose systematics, at first glance, appeared clear. The most derived clade would include two Colombian species (P.terribilis and P.bicolor) with the highest toxicity, the largest body size, and predominantly yellow body colouration. The other three species (P.aurotaenia, P.vittatus, and P.lugubris) are less toxic on average, have smaller size, and are predominantly black with bright dorsolateral stripes. Recent research has revealed the existence of two major lineages among the three Colombian species. The northern lineage appears to result from a complex evolutionary history, including perhaps introgression among yellow and black taxa. The southern lineage instead revealed the existence of new clades closely related to P.terribilis, black and yellow, that arguably deserve their recognition as new species. Here, available evidence is combined to support the erection of southern populations of P.aurotaenia as a new highly toxic species, sister to P.terribilis, and much closer to it than to any other yellow or black-bodied species, Phyllobatessamperisp. nov. Their common ancestor is sister to an additional yellow species, which we also describe here as Phyllobatesbezosisp. nov. Both new species can be externally diagnosed using colouration. Our previous and current analyses also suggest the existence of additional taxa and corroborate multiple transitions in colouration across these hypertoxic taxa.

Aim In this study, we sought to understand how the Linnean shortfall (i.e., the lack of knowledge about species taxonomy) interacts with the Darwinian shortfall (i.e., the lack of knowledge about phylogenetic relationships among species), which potentially jeopardises geographical patterns in estimates of speciation rates.LocationNew World.TaxonCoralsnakes (Serpentes: Elapidae).MethodsWe created an index of taxonomic uncertainty (ITU) that measures the likelihood of current species being split after undergoing future taxonomic revisions. The ITU was used in simulations where species with higher taxonomic uncertainty had a higher likelihood of having their phylogenetic branches split, generating new hypothetical species along their geographic ranges. We estimated the speciation rates before and after the split of taxonomically uncertain species.ResultsWe found that a high number of coralsnake species display substantial taxonomic uncertainty, positively correlated with the latitude of the species' geographical range centroid. The estimated speciation rates based on currently available data have a weak relationship with latitude. However, after incorporating taxonomic uncertainty into the phylogeny, we detect a higher positive correlation between speciation rate and latitude.Main ConclusionsThe observed change in speciation rates following the incorporation of taxonomic uncertainty highlights how such uncertainty can undermine the empirical evaluation of geographical patterns in speciation rates, revealing an interaction between the latitudinal taxonomic gradient and the latitudinal diversity gradient. Given that taxonomic changes can alter the number of species recognised as valid over time, our study highlights the need to incorporate taxonomic uncertainty into macroecological and macroevolutionary studies, enhancing the robustness of patterns inferred from these data.