Joeri Sergej Strijk

Macroecological research aims to understand factors influencing species composition and diversity. Understanding the distribution patterns of species is essential for prioritizing areas for conservation. This study investigates the alpha (α) and beta (β) diversity facets of Fagaceae across past (historical), present, and future timelines in Southwestern China. We used over 11,000 geographical observations to predict the spatial patterns of the α- and β-diversity of 120 species. We modeled the α-diversity via stacking prediction using an individual species distribution model at 50 km × 50 km grid cells. We used Sørensen dissimilarity to quantify total β-diversity and its components - turnover (β SIM) and nestedness (β NES). We integrated climate variables along with topographic and plant trait predictors to understand the species diversity. Finally, simultaneous autoregression (SAR) model was used to evaluate the effects of predictor variables on the α- and β-diversity patterns. Our results indicate a projected decline in α-diversity and an increase in β-diversity in the future. The findings underscore that the species β SIM is a driving factor of differing species composition during the past and present periods, while β NES will be a dominant factor in the future. Similarly, climatic and topographic factors significantly influenced the α-diversity and the β-diversity. In the future, climatic variables will play a significant role in determining the diversity patterns. By closely studying how various species respond and adapt to these changes, we can gain valuable insights into the dynamics of ecosystems and the potential threats to biodiversity.

Herbarium specimens provide an important and central resource for biodiversity research. Making these records digitally available to end-users represents numerous challenges, in particular, transcribing metadata associated with specimen labels. In this study, we used the citizen science initiative ‘Les Herbonautes’ and the Récolnat network to transcribe specific data from all herbarium specimen labels stored at the Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle in Paris of the large tropical plant family Annonaceae. We compared this database with publicly available global biodiversity repository data and expert checklists. We investigated spatial and taxonomic advances in data availability at the global and country scales. A total of 20 738 specimens were transcribed over the course of more than two years contributing to and significantly extending the previously available specimen and species data for Annonaceae worldwide. We show that several regions, mainly in Africa and South East Asia not covered by online global datasets, are uniquely available in the P herbarium, probably linked to past history of the museum’s botanical exploration. While acknowledging the challenges faced during the transcription of historic specimens by citizen scientists, this study highlights the positive impact of adding records to global datasets both in space and time. This is illustrative for researchers, collection managers, policy makers as well as funders. These datasets will be valuable for numerous future studies in biodiversity research, including ecology, evolution, conservation and climate change science.

AbstractPremiseThe ecological conditions that constrain plants to an environmental niche are assumed to be constant through time. While the fossil record has been used previously to test for niche conservatism of woody flowering plants, additional studies are needed in other plant groups especially since they can provide insight with paleoclimatic reconstructions, high biodiversity in modern terrestrial ecosystems, and significant contributions to agriculture.MethodsWe tested climatic niche conservatism across time by characterizing the climatic niches of living herbaceous ginger plants (Zingiberaceae) and woody dawn redwood (Metasequoia) against paleoniches reconstructed based on fossil distribution data and paleoclimatic models.ResultsDespite few fossil Zingiberaceae occurrences in the latitudinal tropics, unlike living Zingiberaceae, extinct Zingiberaceae likely experienced paratropical conditions in the higher latitudes, especially in the Cretaceous and Paleogene. The living and fossil distributions of Metasequoia largely remain in the upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The Zingiberaceae shifted from an initial subtropical climatic paleoniche in the Cretaceous, toward a temperate regime in the late Cenozoic; Metasequoia occupied a more consistent climatic niche over the same time intervals.ConclusionsBecause of the inconsistent climatic niches of Zingiberaceae over geologic time, we are less confident of using them for taxonomic‐based paleoclimatic reconstruction methods like nearest living relative, which assume a consistent climatic niche between extant and extinct relatives; we argue that the consistent climatic niche of Metasequoia is more appropriate for these reconstructions. Niche conservatism cannot be assumed between extant and extinct plants and should be tested further in groups used for paleoclimatic reconstructions.

ABSTRACTAimFerns are globally distributed, yet the number of studies examining the historical evolution of African taxa is relatively low. Investigation of the evolution of African fern diversity is critical in order to understand patterns and processes that have global relevance (e.g., the pantropical diversity disparity [PDD] pattern). This study aims to examine when and from where a globally distributed fern lineage arrived in sub‐Saharan Africa, to obtain a better understanding of potential processes contributing to patterns of diversity across the region.LocationGlobal, sub‐Saharan Africa.TaxonAsplenium (Aspleniaceae).MethodsWe analysed five loci from 537 Asplenium taxa using a maximum likelihood (IQ‐Tree) phylogenetic framework. For age estimation, we performed penalised likelihood as implemented in treePL, and executed a Bayesian analysis using BEAST. Biogeographical analyses were carried out using BioGeoBEARS.ResultsMost dispersals into Africa occurred within the last ~55 myr, with the highest diversity of sub‐Saharan African taxa concentrated in two clades, each of which descended from an Asian ancestor. Additional dispersals to sub‐Saharan Africa can be found throughout the phylogeny. Lastly, potential cryptic species diversity exists within Asplenium as evidenced by several polyphyletic taxa.Main ConclusionsWe recover multiple dispersals of Asplenium to sub‐Saharan Africa, with two major lineages likely diversifying after arrival.

Curculio davidi is a major pest in chestnut-producing regions in China, and there have been many studies on its occurrence, biological characteristics, and management strategies. However, few of them have focused on the distribution changes of the pest under climate change. In this study, the MaxEnt model (version 3.3.4) and ArcGIS software (version 10.8) were first employed to map the current and future (2050 s and 2080 s) suitable habitat distribution of the weevil under climate change (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for C. davidi are mainly concentrated in Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, the coastal areas of Shandong, and eastern Guizhou, northwestern Hunan, and northeastern Sichuan provinces in China. Through the Jackknife test of 19 climate factors, six climate factors affecting the distribution of C. davidi were identified, with precipitation from July (Prec7), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), and temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (Bio4) contributing a combined percentage of 86.3%. Under three different climate scenarios (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), the area of moderately suitable regions is projected to increase by 22.12–27.33% in the 2050 s and by 17.80–38.22% in the 2080 s compared to the current distribution, while the area of highly suitable regions shows a shrinking trend. This study provides data support for the management strategies of C. davidi and offers new insights into the dynamic changes of similar forestry pests.

Spatial truncation in species distribution models (SDMs) might cause niche truncation and model transferability issues, particularly when extrapolating models to non‐analog environmental conditions. While broad calibration extents reduce truncation issues, they usually overlook local ecological factors driving species distributions at finer resolution. Spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs (HSDMs) address truncation by merging (a) a global model calibrated with broadly extended, yet typically low‐resolution, basic, and imprecise data; and (b) a regional model calibrated with spatially restricted but more precise and reliable data. This study aimed to examine HSDMs' efficacy to overcome spatial truncation in national‐scale studies. We compared two hierarchical strategies (‘covariate', which uses the global model output as a covariate for the regional model, and ‘multiply', which calculates the geometric mean of the global and regional models) and a non‐hierarchical strategy. The three strategies were compared in terms of niche truncation, environmental extrapolation, model performance, species' predicted distributions and shifts, and trends in species richness. We examined the consistency of the results over two study areas (Spain and Switzerland), 108 tree species, and four future climate scenarios. Only the non‐hierarchical strategy was susceptible to niche truncation, and environmental extrapolation issues. Hierarchical strategies, particularly the ‘covariate' one, presented greater model accuracy than non‐hierarchical strategies. The non‐hierarchical strategy predicted the highest overall values and the lowest decreases over time in species distribution ranges and richness. Differences between strategies were more evident in Switzerland, which was more affected by niche truncation issues. Spain was more negatively affected by climate change and environmental extrapolation. The ‘covariate' strategy exhibited higher model performance than the ‘multiply' one. However, uncertainties regarding model temporal transferability advocate for adopting and further examining multiple hierarchical approaches. This research underscores the importance of adopting spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs given the compromised reliability of non‐hierarchical approaches due to niche truncation and extrapolation issues.

Aim Species occurrence data are valuable information that enables one to estimate geographical distributions, characterize niches and their evolution, and guide spatial conservation planning. Rapid increases in species occurrence data stem from increasing digitization and aggregation efforts, and citizen science initiatives. However, persistent quality issues in occurrence data can impact the accuracy of scientific findings, underscoring the importance of filtering erroneous occurrence records in biodiversity analyses.InnovationWe introduce an R package, occTest, that synthesizes a growing open‐source ecosystem of biodiversity cleaning workflows to prepare occurrence data for different modelling applications. It offers a structured set of algorithms to identify potential problems with species occurrence records by employing a hierarchical organization of multiple tests. The workflow has a hierarchical structure organized in testPhases (i.e. cleaning vs. testing) that encompass different testBlocks grouping different testTypes (e.g. environmental outlier detection), which may use different testMethods (e.g. Rosner test, jacknife,etc.). Four different testBlocks characterize potential problems in geographic, environmental, human influence and temporal dimensions. Filtering and plotting functions are incorporated to facilitate the interpretation of tests. We provide examples with different data sources, with default and user‐defined parameters. Compared to other available tools and workflows, occTest offers a comprehensive suite of integrated tests, and allows multiple methods associated with each test to explore consensus among data cleaning methods. It uniquely incorporates both coordinate accuracy analysis and environmental analysis of occurrence records. Furthermore, it provides a hierarchical structure to incorporate future tests yet to be developed.Main conclusionsoccTest will help users understand the quality and quantity of data available before the start of data analysis, while also enabling users to filter data using either predefined rules or custom‐built rules. As a result, occTest can better assess each record's appropriateness for its intended application.

Present-day geographic and phylogenetic patterns often reflect the geological and climatic history of the planet. Neontological distribution data are often sufficient to unravel a lineage’s biogeographic history, yet ancestral range inferences can be at odds with fossil evidence. Here, I use the fossilized birth–death process and the dispersal–extinction cladogenesis model to jointly infer the dated phylogeny and range evolution of the tree fern order Cyatheales. I use data for 101 fossil and 442 extant tree ferns to reconstruct the biogeographic history of the group over the last 220 million years. Fossil-aware reconstructions evince a prolonged occupancy of Laurasia over the Triassic–Cretaceous by Cyathealean tree ferns, which is evident in the fossil record but hidden from analyses relying on neontological data alone. Nonetheless, fossil-aware reconstructions are affected by uncertainty in fossils’ phylogenetic placement, taphonomic biases, and specimen sampling and are sensitive to interpretation of paleodistributions and how these are scored. The present results highlight the need and challenges of incorporating fossils into joint inferences of phylogeny and biogeography to improve the reliability of ancestral geographic range estimation.

Dense branching and spines are common features of plant species in ecosystems with high mammalian herbivory pressure. While dense branching and spines can inhibit herbivory independently, when combined, they form a powerful defensive cage architecture. However, how cage architecture evolved under mammalian pressure has remained unexplored. Here we show how dense branching and spines emerged during the age of mammalian radiation in the Combretaceae family and diversified in herbivore-driven ecosystems in the tropics. Phylogenetic comparative methods revealed that modern plant architectural strategies defending against large mammals evolved via a stepwise process. First, dense branching emerged under intermediate herbivory pressure, followed by the acquisition of spines that supported higher speciation rates under high herbivory pressure. Our study highlights the adaptive value of dense branching as part of a herbivore defence strategy and identifies large mammal herbivory as a major selective force shaping the whole plant architecture of woody plants. This study explores the evolution of two traits, branching density and spine presence, in the globally distributed plant family Combretaceae. These traits were found to have appeared in a two-step process in response to mammalian herbivory pressure, revealing the importance of large mammals in the evolution of plant architecture diversity.

岛屿因具有明确的地理边界, 是检验多个生态学过程如何构建生物多样性的理想平台之一。岛屿属性、气候因素、人 类干扰等通过影响物种选择、扩散等过程, 进而影响着岛屿生物多样性格局。目前对于岛屿植物丰富度格局如何受这些因素 的共同作用的认识仍不充分, 尤其是在人类干扰较强的海岛。本文基于我国第一大群岛舟山群岛92个岛屿较完整的种子植物 分布数据, 采用一般线性回归和广义线性模型(伪泊松分布)定量评估岛屿属性(面积、隔离度、形状指数)、气候(温度、降水 及其季节性)和人类干扰对本土植物总丰富度及不同生长型、叶物候型植物丰富度格局的影响, 采用beta回归分析常绿阔叶木 本比率(常绿阔叶木本植物丰富度/所有阔叶木本植物丰富度)的影响因素。结果发现: 92个岛屿共记录本土植物1,158种, 其中 乔木108种、灌木318种、草本732种; 岛屿面积是对植物总丰富度影响最大的因子, 其次是年降水量和隔离度; 乔木丰富度随 隔离度增加而减少的趋势比灌木和草本更明显; 常绿阔叶和落叶阔叶木本植物丰富度格局与总体基本一致, 年降水量对常绿 阔叶木本的影响大于落叶阔叶木本, 但常绿阔叶木本比率仅受温度季节性的强烈影响。岛屿面积、年降水量、温度季节性等 是塑造舟山群岛所有植物及其不同功能型组(生长型、叶物候型)植物丰富度格局的主要决定因素。