Zoë Goodwin

The campos rupestres and the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Inselbergs (BAFI) are highly diverse vegetation types that grow on mountaintops of eastern Brazil and show outstanding levels of endemism. The plant family Velloziaceae is an iconic element of these vegetations, with the genus Vellozia, being exceptionally abundant in both these vegetations. In this study, we use Vellozia as a model to address three main questions: (i) What was the distribution of Vellozia’s most recent common ancestor? (ii) Did the range expansions of Vellozia occur during periods characterized by global cooling? (iii) When did Vellozia colonize the different South American highlands they occupy nowadays? To address these questions, we reconstructed the phylogeny of Vellozia using sequences of four molecular markers analysed using Bayesian and maximum likelihood inferences. We used the resulting phylogeny to reconstruct the ancestral distribution of Vellozia using the DEC model. Our findings indicate that Vellozia originated and subsequently diversified in the Oligocene, when the genus was broadly distributed through the Andes, BAFI, Cerrado, Caatinga, and the Chapada Diamantina, suggesting that the Cerrado may acted as a corridor between the Andes and eastern mountaintop vegetations. Vellozia subsequently occupied the southern Espinhaço during the Early Miocene, which was followed by increased diversification rates and several range expansions, especially after the Middle-Miocene Climatic Optimum, when cooler and drier periods allowed the expansion of open environments and the retraction of forests, allowing Vellozia to expand their distribution. These results highlight the unique evolutionary history of Vellozia and the importance of climatic cooling for the expansion of the genus.

AbstractPremiseThe ecological conditions that constrain plants to an environmental niche are assumed to be constant through time. While the fossil record has been used previously to test for niche conservatism of woody flowering plants, additional studies are needed in other plant groups especially since they can provide insight with paleoclimatic reconstructions, high biodiversity in modern terrestrial ecosystems, and significant contributions to agriculture.MethodsWe tested climatic niche conservatism across time by characterizing the climatic niches of living herbaceous ginger plants (Zingiberaceae) and woody dawn redwood (Metasequoia) against paleoniches reconstructed based on fossil distribution data and paleoclimatic models.ResultsDespite few fossil Zingiberaceae occurrences in the latitudinal tropics, unlike living Zingiberaceae, extinct Zingiberaceae likely experienced paratropical conditions in the higher latitudes, especially in the Cretaceous and Paleogene. The living and fossil distributions of Metasequoia largely remain in the upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The Zingiberaceae shifted from an initial subtropical climatic paleoniche in the Cretaceous, toward a temperate regime in the late Cenozoic; Metasequoia occupied a more consistent climatic niche over the same time intervals.ConclusionsBecause of the inconsistent climatic niches of Zingiberaceae over geologic time, we are less confident of using them for taxonomic‐based paleoclimatic reconstruction methods like nearest living relative, which assume a consistent climatic niche between extant and extinct relatives; we argue that the consistent climatic niche of Metasequoia is more appropriate for these reconstructions. Niche conservatism cannot be assumed between extant and extinct plants and should be tested further in groups used for paleoclimatic reconstructions.

Abstract After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.

ABSTRACTAimFerns are globally distributed, yet the number of studies examining the historical evolution of African taxa is relatively low. Investigation of the evolution of African fern diversity is critical in order to understand patterns and processes that have global relevance (e.g., the pantropical diversity disparity [PDD] pattern). This study aims to examine when and from where a globally distributed fern lineage arrived in sub‐Saharan Africa, to obtain a better understanding of potential processes contributing to patterns of diversity across the region.LocationGlobal, sub‐Saharan Africa.TaxonAsplenium (Aspleniaceae).MethodsWe analysed five loci from 537 Asplenium taxa using a maximum likelihood (IQ‐Tree) phylogenetic framework. For age estimation, we performed penalised likelihood as implemented in treePL, and executed a Bayesian analysis using BEAST. Biogeographical analyses were carried out using BioGeoBEARS.ResultsMost dispersals into Africa occurred within the last ~55 myr, with the highest diversity of sub‐Saharan African taxa concentrated in two clades, each of which descended from an Asian ancestor. Additional dispersals to sub‐Saharan Africa can be found throughout the phylogeny. Lastly, potential cryptic species diversity exists within Asplenium as evidenced by several polyphyletic taxa.Main ConclusionsWe recover multiple dispersals of Asplenium to sub‐Saharan Africa, with two major lineages likely diversifying after arrival.

Centella asiatica is a medicinal plant recognized for its various benefits contributed by its metabolites and has been used as a food supplement since prehistorical times across various cultures. Due to the reliance on natural populations of C. asiatica and the impacts of environmental factors on its yield and centelloside production, there is a need to identify suitable cultivation areas for this species. We employed ecological niche modelling with bioclimatic and soil variables to evaluate the suitability of cultivation under current and future climatic scenarios. Our results identified suitable areas for cultivating C. asiatica worldwide, indicating its potential for global commercial cultivation. However, the niche reconstruction of highly concentrated centelloside was restricted to South and Southeast Asia due to the lack of available data. When we projected the modelled niche of centelloside in these regions, we observed a lower occurrence probability in some areas, suggesting potential challenges in cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, our results suggest a consistent future distribution for this species when we projected the modelled niche under future climates based on various socio-economic scenarios. This study not only identifies suitable areas to develop commercial cultivation for C. asiatica with highly concentrated centelloside, but also provides supporting evidence of the consistency of these areas, which can increase its sustainability.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.

The scarcity of long-term observational data has limited the use of statistical or machine-learning techniques for predicting intraannual ecological variation. However, time-stamped citizen-science observation records, supported by media data such as photographs, are increasingly available. In the present article, we present a novel framework based on the concept of relative phenological niche, using machine-learning algorithms to model observation records as a temporal sample of environmental conditions in which the represented ecological phenomenon occurs. Our approach accurately predicts the temporal dynamics of ecological events across large geographical scales and is robust to temporal bias in recording effort. These results highlight the vast potential of citizen-science observation data to predict ecological phenomena across space, including in near real time. The framework is also easily applicable for ecologists and practitioners already using machine-learning and statistics-based predictive approaches.

Premise Vertical surfaces in urban environments represent a potential expansion of niche space for lithophytic fern species. There are, however, few records of differential success rates of fern species in urban environments.MethodsThe occurrence rates of 16 lithophytic fern species native to the northeastern USA in 14 biomes, including four urban environments differentiated by percentage of impervious surfaces, were evaluated. In addition, the natural macroclimatic ranges of these species were analyzed to test whether significant differences existed in climatic tolerance between species that occur in urban environments and species that do not.ResultsThree species appear to preferentially occur in urban environments, two species may facultatively occur in urban environments, and the remaining 11 species preferentially occur in nondeveloped rural environments. The natural range of fern species that occur in urban environments had higher summer temperatures than the range of species that do not, whereas other macroclimatic variables, notably winter temperatures and precipitation, were less important or insignificant.ConclusionsVertical surfaces in urban environments may represent novel niche space for some native lithophytic fern species in northeastern USA. However, success in this environment depends, in part, on tolerance of the urban heat island effect, especially heating of impervious surfaces in summer.

Wild food plants (WFPs) are important components of the diet and a source of income for local communities in semiarid regions, given that these populations are commonly characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerability and dependence on natural resources for subsistence. In periods of food scarcity and crop failure, WFPs emerge as strategic resources for ensuring food and nutrition security. However, these little-researched plants may also be affected by climate change. Here, our objective was to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of WFPs in the Brazilian semiarid and evaluate their potential availability in future climate change scenarios. We constructed habitat suitability models for economically and nutritionally important WFPs used in this region and projected future scenarios (2041–2060). Furthermore, we determined the geographical distribution, species richness, and composition (on local and regional scales) of WFPs in current and future scenarios. Our results showed that WFPs exhibited varied responses to climate change. The more pessimistic the future scenario, the greater the negative effects. Most WFP species exhibited a reduction in climatically suitable areas in future scenarios, resulting in a shrinkage of geographical ranges, a reduction in species richness, and alterations in community composition. These changes could have important implications for economic development, subsistence, and food and nutrition security in the region. Our findings offer insights that can guide actions for adaptation and mitigating the effects of climate change and promoting species conservation not only in the Brazilian semiarid but also in other semiarid regions worldwide.

Aim To test the hypothesis that adaptive shifts leading to the assembly of tropical savannas involved coordination between bark and wood traits and to understand the underlying mechanisms.LocationTropical South America.TaxonAngiosperms (woody).MethodsWe compiled data on three bark traits (total, inner and outer relative bark thickness), wood density, maximum height, five secondary xylem traits and on species' habitat information (light environment, climate, soil and fire history) for Neotropical savanna, forest and generalist species (biome groups). We tested for pairwise and multivariate associations among traits across species and if biome group and habitat conditions explained species positions along the resulting strategy axes.ResultsTraits covaried along four different axes. The first axis was consistent with a trade‐off between fire (thick barks) and shade tolerance (low bark to diameter ratio, high vessel density) and contributed to differentiate the three biome groups according to the preference for shaded environments. Forest species also differed from savanna and generalist species in a separate axis by being more resource acquisitive. Maximum height and wood density did not strongly trade‐off with bark thickness, although maximum height was negatively covaried with relative outer bark thickness. Preference for shaded conditions was the main driver of variation in the two principal strategy axes, but temperature, fire and soil sand content also explained differences in plant stature between savanna and generalist species.Main ConclusionsAllocation to bark is constrained by trade‐offs with wood, opposing shade‐tolerant and acquisitive forest species to fire‐resistant and conservative savanna species. Rather than a single strategy axis, three axes are necessary to understand the functional differences among savanna, forest and generalist species. Because two of these axes are controlled by light availability, the associated traits tend to covary in space and time, but not across species.