Per Axel Rydberg

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are among the most widespread ecosystems in rangelands of western North America, supporting diverse wildlife habitat, recreation, grazing, and cultural/spiritual enrichment. Anticipating future distribution shifts under changing climate will be critical to climate adaptation and conservation efforts in these ecosystems. Here, we evaluate drivers of PJ tree species’ distributions and project changes in response to future climate change. We developed species distribution models with dryland-focused predictors to project environmental suitability changes across the entirety of three pinyon and six juniper species ranges. We identify areas of robust suitability change by combining suitability projections from multiple emissions scenarios and time periods. PJ species’ suitabilities respond to many temperature and moisture covariates expected to change in the future. Projected responses among PJ species are highly variable, ranging from modest declines with concurrent gains for overall little net change to wide-ranging declines with no gains for overall range contractions. Environmental suitability is projected to decline broadly across the arid United States Southwest and remain relatively stable across the northern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Our results suggest unique responses of PJ species to future climate change. We found that species were projected to experience more losses than gains in suitability, for overall range shrinks rather than shifts. Land managers have the capacity to increase woodland resilience to drought, and our results can inform rangeland-wide management planning and conservation efforts in PJ woodlands.

Nonnative invasive plants (weeds) negatively impact native ecosystems, and their effects are likely to increase with continuing global trade. Biological weed control has been employed as a cost-effective and sustainable management option for weeds in the USA since 1902. Biological control programs require careful prioritization of target weeds to ensure the most appropriate targets are selected to obtain the greatest beneficial outcomes with available resources. The Biological Control Target Selection (BCTS) system was developed by researchers in South Africa as an objective, transparent approach to prioritizing new weed biological control targets. The BCTS system was recently modified and applied to 295 state-regulated weeds in the western USA for which no biological control agents have yet been released. This paper presents the results of that application, identifying the most suitable candidates for new biological control programs as well as problematic weeds for which the likelihood of successful biological control is low.Top-ranked species in the western USA are biennial or perennial weeds that occur in stable habitats, are established in more than one state, have traits deemed difficult to control with conventional methods, have large negative impacts and no conflicts of interest outside of the horticultural industry, and have substantial information available on potential biocontrol agents. Fifteen of the 20 top-ranked species are already targets of ongoing biological control programs in the USA. When species with current programs are excluded from the analysis, the next 20 top-ranked species largely differ by having less information available on potential biological control agents and having native or economically important congeners in the USA. Results from this framework provide valuable insights to the prioritization of current and future biocontrol research programs in the western USA.

As an invasive plant, Solanum elaeagnifolium has posed a serious threat to agriculture and natural ecosystems worldwide. In order to better manage and limit its spread, we established niche models by combining distribution information and climate data from the native and invasive ranges of S. elaeagnifolium to analyze its niche changes during its colonization. Additionally, we evaluated its global invasion risk. Our results showed that the distribution of S. elaeagnifolium is affected by temperature, precipitation, altitude, and human activities. Solanum elaeagnifolium exhibits different degrees of niche conservatism and niche shift in different invasion ranges.During the global invasion of S. elaeagnifolium, both the niche shift and conservatism were observed, however, niche shift was particularly significant due to the presence of unoccupied niches (niche unfilling). Solanum elaeagnifolium generally occupied a relatively stable niche. However, a notable expansion was observed primarily in Europe and China. In Australia and Africa, its niche largely remains a subset of its native niche. Compared to the niche observed in its native range, its realized niche in China and Europe has shifted toward lower temperature and higher precipitation levels. Conversely, in Africa, the niche has shifted toward lower precipitation levels, while in Australia, it has shifted toward higher temperature. Our model predicted that S. elaeagnifolium has high invasion potential in many countries and regions. The populations of S. elaeagnifolium in China and Africa have reached the adapted stage, while the populations in Australia and Europe are currently in the stabilization stage. In addition, our research suggests that the potential distribution of S. elaeagnifolium will expand further in the future as the climate warms. All in all, our study suggests that S. elaeagnifolium has high potential to invade globally. Due to its high invasive potential, global surveillance and preventive measures are necessary to address its spread.

AbstractPremiseClines—or the geographic sorting of phenotypes across continual space—provide an opportunity to understand the interaction of dispersal, selection, and history in structuring polymorphisms.MethodsIn this study, we combine field‐sampling, genetics, climatic analyses, and machine learning to understand a flower color polymorphism in the wide‐ranging desert annual Encelia farinosa.ResultsWe find evidence for replicated transitions in disk floret color from brown to yellow across spatial scales, with the most prominent cline stretching ~100 km from southwestern United States into México. Because population structure across the cline is minimal, selection is more likely than drift to have an important role in determining cline width.ConclusionsGiven that the cline aligns with a climatic transition but there is no evidence for pollinator preference for flower color, we hypothesize that floret color likely varies as a function of climatic conditions.

The first record of Xenoglossa (Cemolobus) ipomoeae (Robertson, 1891) (Apidae: Eucerini) for the state of Mississippi, USA is reported. This species is a rarely encountered specialist bee that is known to forage on Ipomoea pandurata (L.) G.F.W. Mey (Convolvulaceae), potentially along with other closely related plants in the genus Ipomoea. A single female was collected in Bolivar County during 2017 that a represents a significant southwestern range expansion for this bee species.

Plant species with small habitat ranges and specific edaphic requirements are highly vulnerable to extinction and thus require enhanced attention in biodiversity conservation. This study was designed to explore the challenges of protecting such plant species by evaluating the in situ and ex situ conservation capacities available for Thailand's species of the mega‐diverse plant genus Begonia L. A comprehensive assessment of occurrence records across the country was conducted to evaluate the spatial distribution of Begonia diversity in Thailand, identify biodiversity hotspots, assess the extinction threats faced by the 60 Begonia species known in the country, and identify existing conservation capacities and potential gaps. The results show that 78% of Begonia species in Thailand are vulnerable to extinction, with the Northern floristic region identified as both a Begonia species hotspot and a region with major conservation gaps. While in situ conservation efforts have been successful in covering over 88% of the species, they have failed to provide the protection required to achieve zero extinction. Ex situ conservation capacities are poorly developed, with only 13% of species present in botanical gardens, and no seed banking or other related activities have been initiated. This evaluation presents a sharply contrasting message: on one hand, Thailand has assembled substantial capacities to protect these plants through established national parks and other protected areas, but on the other hand, essential capacities are still lacking to render the zero extinction target achievable. We advocate for the implementation of a multi‐component conservation strategy to enable Thailand to move towards zero species extinction, even for plant species with narrow habitat ranges and high edaphic specialisation.

Premise of research. Little is known about the establishment success of grasses after their introduction into new areas. Using herbarium data, we investigated temporospatial patterns in the survival, establishment, and spread of grasses introduced to eastern North America through solid ballast deposition from the pre-twentieth-century shipping trade. Methodology. We identified 95 grass species introduced to New Jersey via ballast deposition and used 2729 digitized and georeferenced plant specimens from 63 herbaria to quantify their establishment and dispersion. Anselin Local Moran’s I measure of local spatial autocorrelation revealed the earliest and most recent areas of invasion by ballast grasses irrespective of collection intensity. Species’ native ranges were used to evaluate the differential establishment and dispersion of species from different biogeographic realms. Pivotal results. Of all the species (95), 51% did not survive after ballast deposition ended (waifs), 8% died out shortly thereafter (short-term), and 41% became established in New Jersey. Of the established species, 41% are widespread (established-widespread), and 59% are still primarily found near shipping ports and railroads (established–limited spread). These species are mostly native to the Palearctic (77%; 44% to the Mediterranean and 33% to northern Europe), followed by the Neotropics (11%), the Afrotropics (10%), and the southeastern United States (4%). The establishment proportion for species native to more than one biogeographic region (72%) was four times greater than that for species native to a single region (18%). Additionally, 95% of established species, including all established-widespread species, are native to the Eastern Hemisphere. Conclusions. We present the first analysis of the establishment proportion for a large set of grasses introduced through a single vector to a single area. We show the impact of biogeographic origin on the establishment proportion of introduced grasses and highlight the utility of herbarium collections for studying nonnative species’ history.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.

The Khanka Lowland forest-steppe is the most eastern outpost of the Eurasian steppe biome. It includes unique grassland plant communities with rare steppe species. These coenosis have changed under the influence of anthropogenic activity, especially during the last 100 years and included both typical steppe species and nemoral mesophytic species. To distinguish these ecological groups of plants the random forest method with three datasets of environmental variables was applied. Specifically, a model of classification with the most important bioindices to predict a mesophytic ecological group of plants with a sensitivity greater than 80% was constructed. The data demonstrated the presence of steppe species that arrived at different times in the Primorye Territory. Most of these species are associated with the Mongolian-Daurian relict steppe complex and habit in the Khanka Lowland. Other species occur only in mountains in Primorye Territory and do not persist in the Khanka Lowland. These findings emphasize the presence of relict steppe communities with a complex of true steppe species in the Khanka Lowland. Steppe communities exhibit features of anthropogenic influence definitely through the long land use period but are not anthropogenic in origin. The most steppe species are located at the eastern border of distribution in the Khanka Lowlands and are valuable in terms of conservation and sources of information about steppe species origin and the emergence of the steppe biome as a whole.

It would be advantageous to grow legume forage crops in order to increase the productivity and sustainability of sloped croplands in Hamkyongbukdo. In particular, the identification of potential cultivation areas for alfalfa in the given region could aid decision-making on policies and management related to forage crop production in the future. This study aimed to analyze the climate suitability of alfalfa in Hamkyongbukdo under current and future climate conditions using the Fuzzy Union model. The climate suitability predicted by the Fuzzy Union model was compared with the actual alfalfa cultivation area in the northern United States. Climate data obtained from 11 global climate models were used as input data for calculation of climate suitability in the study region to examine the uncertainty of projections under future climate conditions. The area where the climate suitability index was greater than a threshold value (22.6) explained about 44% of the variation in actual alfalfa cultivation areas by state in the northern United States. The climatic suitability of alfalfa was projected to decrease in most areas of Hamkyongbukdo under future climate scenarios. The climatic suitability in Onseong and Gyeongwon County was analyzed to be over 88 in the current climate conditions. However, it was projected to decrease by about 66% in the given areas by the 2090s. Our study illustrated that the impact of climate change on suitable cultivation areas was highly variable when different climate data were used as inputs to the Fuzzy Union model. Still, the ensemble of the climate suitability projections for alfalfa was projected to decrease considerably due to summer depression in Hamkyongbukdo. It would be advantageous to predict suitable cultivation areas by adding soil conditions or to predict the climate suitability of other leguminous crops such as hairy vetch, which merits further studies.