Science Enabled by Specimen Data

Xiao, S., S. Li, J. Huang, X. Wang, M. Wu, R. Karim, W. Deng, and T. Su. 2024. Influence of climate factors on the global dynamic distribution of Tsuga (Pinaceae). Ecological Indicators 158: 111533.

Throughout the Quaternary period, climate change has significantly influenced plant distribution, particularly affecting species within the genus Tsuga (Endl.) Carrière. This climatic impact ultimately led to the extinction of all Tsuga species in Europe. Today, there are ten recognized species of Tsuga worldwide, one of listed as a vulnerable species and four as near-threatened species. The genus Tsuga exhibits a disjunctive distribution in East Asia (EA), eastern North America (ENA), and western North America (WNA). It is crucial to comprehend the mechanisms underlying these distributional changes and to identify key climate variables to develop effective conservation strategies for Tsuga under future climate scenarios. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model by combining distribution data for Tsuga with abundant pollen fossil data. Our objective was to investigate the climate factors that shape the distribution of Tsuga, identify climate thresholds, and elucidate distribution dynamics in the context of significant climate changes over the past 1070 thousand years (ka). Our findings highlight the pivotal role of precipitation as the key climate factor affecting the distribution of Tsuga. Specifically, in EA, summer precipitation was the key driver, while in North America (NA), winter precipitation exerted greater importance. Moreover, we observed similarities in climatic requirements between Tsuga species in Europe and EA, and declines in summer precipitation and winter temperature were major factors contributing to the extinction of Tsuga species in Europe. Quaternary glacial and interglacial fluctuations exerted substantial impacts on Tsuga distribution dynamics. The disappearance of Tsuga species in the Korean Peninsula may have occurred during the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum). The potential suitable area for Tsuga species in EA expanded during the cold periods, while in NA, it contracted. In the future, climate change may result Tsuga distribution area contraction in both the EA and NA. Our study has identified distinct response patterns of Tsuga in various geographic regions to Quaternary climate change and offers corresponding suggestions for Tsuga conservation. In the future, it will be imperative to prioritize the conservation of natural Tsuga distributions in EA and NA, with a focus on the impacts of precipitation fluctuation on the dynamic distribution of this genus.

Putra, A. R., K. A. Hodgins, and A. Fournier‐Level. 2023. Assessing the invasive potential of different source populations of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) through genomically informed species distribution modelling. Evolutionary Applications.

The genetic composition of founding populations is likely to play a key role in determining invasion success. Individual genotypes may differ in habitat preference and environmental tolerance, so their ability to colonize novel environments can be highly variable. Despite the importance of genetic variation on invasion success, its influence on the potential distribution of invaders is rarely investigated. Here, we integrate population genomics and ecological niche models (ENMs) into a single framework to predict the distribution of globally invasive common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Australia. We identified three genetic clusters for ragweed and used these to construct cluster‐specific ENMs and characterize within‐species niche differentiation. The potential range of ragweed in Australia depended on the genetic composition and continent of origin of the introduced population. Invaders originating from warmer, wetter climates had a broader potential distribution than those from cooler, drier ones. By quantifying this change, we identified source populations most likely to expand the ragweed distribution. As prevention remains the most effective method of invasive species management, our work provides a valuable way of ranking the threat posed by different populations to better inform management decisions.

Finegan, B., D. Delgado, A. L. Hernández Gordillo, N. Zamora Villalobos, R. Núñez Florez, F. Díaz Santos, and S. Vílchez Mendoza. 2024. Multi-dimensional temperature sensitivity of protected tropical mountain rain forests. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change 6.

Introduction Tropical mountain rain forests (TMRF, natural forests at > 300 m asl) are globally important for biodiversity and ecosystem services and are believed to be highly vulnerable to climate change. But there are no specific approaches for rigorous assessment of their vulnerability at the landscape and local scales necessary for management for adaptation. We address the challenge of evaluating the ecological sensitivity to temperature of TMRF, applying a multidimensional approach in protected areas over a 440–2,950 m asl altitudinal gradient in Costa Rica, synthesizing results of a long-term research programme (2012-present). We evaluate the sensitivity to the current spatial temperature gradient of eleven ecosystem properties in three categories: forest composition and diversity, thermal characteristics of forest stands and forest structure and dynamics.MethodsData are from 29 to 32 plots of 50 m x 50 m (0.25 ha) distributed over the gradient, in which all trees, palms and tree ferns ≥ 10 dbh are identified to species and measured for recruitment, growth and mortality. An experimental study of leaf litter decomposition rates was carried out in twelve plots. Current and future (SSP 585, 2070) values of mean annual temperatures MAT were obtained from online climate surfaces. Thermal characteristics of forest stands were determined using MATs of species occurrences in GBIF and include a new index, the Community Thermal Capital Index (CTCI), calculated as CTI-MAT.ResultsWe classified degrees of sensitivity to temperature as very weak, weak, moderate or substantial. All eleven ecosystem properties are substantially sensitive, so changes in their values are expected under rising temperatures. Species density, the community temperature index CTI, tree recruitment and mortality rates and leaf litter decomposition rates are positively related to temperature, while the community weighted mean thermal niche breadth, the CTCI, net basal area increments, stand basal area and carbon in aboveground biomass are negatively related. Results point to zones of vulnerability in the protected areas.DiscussionIn montane forests, positive values of the CTCI–climate credit– robust basal area growth and very low mortality and leaf litter decomposition rates suggest healthy ecosystems and no risk of mountaintop extinction. Lowland forests may be vulnerable to degradation and biotic attrition, showing current basal area loss, high mortality and climate debts. National and local actors are participating in a process of adoption of the sensitivity analysis and recommendations regarding zones of vulnerability.

Qin, F., T. Xue, X. Zhang, X. Yang, J. Yu, S. R. Gadagkar, and S. Yu. 2023. Past climate cooling and orogenesis of the Hengduan Mountains have influenced the evolution of Impatiens sect. Impatiens (Balsaminaceae) in the Northern Hemisphere. BMC Plant Biology 23.

Background Impatiens sect. Impatiens is distributed across the Northern Hemisphere and has diversified considerably, particularly within the Hengduan Mountains (HDM) in southwest China. Yet, the infra-sectional phylogenetic relationships are not well resolved, largely due to limited taxon sampling and an insufficient number of molecular markers. The evolutionary history of its diversification is also poorly understood. In this study, plastome data and the most complete sampling to date were used to reconstruct a robust phylogenetic framework for this section. The phylogeny was then used to investigate its biogeographical history and diversification patterns, specifically with the aim of understanding the role played by the HDM and past climatic changes in its diversification. Results A stable phylogeny was reconstructed that strongly supported both the monophyly of the section and its division into seven major clades (Clades I-VII). Molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction suggest that sect. Impatiens originated in the HDM and Southeast China around 11.76 Ma, after which different lineages dispersed to Northwest China, temperate Eurasia, and North America, mainly during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. An intercontinental dispersal event from East Asia to western North America may have occurred via the Bering Land Bridge or Aleutian Islands. The diversification rate was high during its early history, especially with the HDM, but gradually decreased over time both within and outside the HDM. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the distribution pattern of species richness was strongly associated with elevation range, elevation, and mean annual temperature. Finally, ancestral niche analysis indicated that sect. Impatiens originated in a relatively cool, middle-elevation area. Conclusions We inferred the evolutionary history of sect. Impatiens based on a solid phylogenetic framework. The HDM was the primary source or pump of its diversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Orogeny and climate change may have also shaped its diversification rates, as a steady decrease in the diversification rate coincided with the uplift of the HDM and climate cooling. These findings provide insights into the distribution pattern of sect. Impatiens and other plants in the Northern Hemisphere.

Zhang, H., W. Guo, and W. Wang. 2023. The dimensionality reductions of environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of species distribution models. Ecology and Evolution 13.

How to effectively obtain species‐related low‐dimensional data from massive environmental variables has become an urgent problem for species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we will explore whether dimensionality reduction on environmental variables can improve the predictive performance of SDMs. We first used two linear (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and independent components analysis) and two nonlinear (i.e., kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection) dimensionality reduction techniques (DRTs) to reduce the dimensionality of high‐dimensional environmental data. Then, we established five SDMs based on the environmental variables of dimensionality reduction for 23 real plant species and nine virtual species, and compared the predictive performance of those with the SDMs based on the selected environmental variables through Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC). In addition, we studied the effects of DRTs, model complexity, and sample size on the predictive performance of SDMs. The predictive performance of SDMs under DRTs other than KPCA is better than using PCC. And the predictive performance of SDMs using linear DRTs is better than using nonlinear DRTs. In addition, using DRTs to deal with environmental variables has no less impact on the predictive performance of SDMs than model complexity and sample size. When the model complexity is at the complex level, PCA can improve the predictive performance of SDMs the most by 2.55% compared with PCC. At the middle level of sample size, the PCA improved the predictive performance of SDMs by 2.68% compared with the PCC. Our study demonstrates that DRTs have a significant effect on the predictive performance of SDMs. Specifically, linear DRTs, especially PCA, are more effective at improving model predictive performance under relatively complex model complexity or large sample sizes.

Petitpierre, B., C. Arnold, L. N. Phelps, and A. Guisan. 2023. A tale of three vines: current and future threats to wild Eurasian grapevine by vineyards and invasive rootstocks. Diversity and Distributions.

AbstractAimEurasian grapevine (Vitis vinifera), one of the most important fruit crops worldwide, diverged from its wild and currently endangered relative (V. vinifera ssp. sylvestris) about 11,000 years ago. In the 19th century, detrimental phylloxera and disease outbreaks in Europe forced grapevine cultivation to use American Vitis species as rootstocks, which have now become naturalized in Europe and are starting to colonize similar habitats to the wild grapevine. Accordingly, wild grapevine now faces two additional threats: the expansion of vineyards and invasive rootstocks. Furthermore, climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the distribution of all grapevines in Europe. In this study, we quantified the distributional and bioclimatic overlap between grapewine's wild relative and the taxa associated with viticulture, under current and future climate.LocationEurope, North America.MethodsThe distributions of wild Eurasian grapevine, cultivated Eurasian grapevine and five American grapevine species used in rootstock breeding programs were linked to climate variables to model their bioclimatic niches. These ecological niche models were used to quantify the spatial and bioclimatic overlap between these seven Vitis taxa in Europe.ResultsNiche and spatial overlap is high between the wild, cultivated and rootstock grapevines, suggesting that existing conflicts between vineyards and wild grapevine conservation may be further complicated by naturalized rootstocks outcompeting the wild grapevine, especially under future scenarios of climate change. In the hottest scenario, only 76.1% of the current distribution of the Eurasian grapevine remains in suitable area.Main ConclusionsAs wild grapevine may ultimately provide a valuable gene pool for adapting viticulture to a changing world, these findings demonstrate the need for improved management of the wild grapevine and its natural habitat, to counteract the harmful effects of global change on the wild relatives of viticulture.

Rodríguez-Merino, A. 2023. Identifying and Managing Areas under Threat in the Iberian Peninsula: An Invasion Risk Atlas for Non-Native Aquatic Plant Species as a Potential Tool. Plants 12: 3069.

Predicting the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced into new areas remains one of conservation’s greatest challenges and, consequently, it is necessary to adopt adequate management measures to mitigate the effects of future biological invasions. At present, not much information is available on the areas in which non-native aquatic plant species could establish themselves in the Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models were used to predict the potential invasion risk of (1) non-native aquatic plant species already established in the peninsula (32 species) and (2) those with the potential to invade the peninsula (40 species). The results revealed that the Iberian Peninsula contains a number of areas capable of hosting non-native aquatic plant species. Areas under anthropogenic pressure are at the greatest risk of invasion, and the variable most related to invasion risk is temperature. The results of this work were used to create the Invasion Risk Atlas for Alien Aquatic Plants in the Iberian Peninsula, a novel online resource that provides information about the potential distribution of non-native aquatic plant species. The atlas and this article are intended to serve as reference tools for the development of public policies, management regimes, and control strategies aimed at the prevention, mitigation, and eradication of non-native aquatic plant species.

Duque, T. S., I. M. Souza, D. S. Mendes, R. S. da Silva, D. P. Mucida, F. D. da Silva, D. V. Silva, and J. B. dos Santos. 2023. Ecological Niche Modeling of Invasive Macrophyte (Urochloa subquadripara) and Co-Occurrence with South American Natives. Sustainability 15: 12722.

Invasive macrophytes are considered problematic in natural environments and hydroelectric reservoirs. Climate changes, the occurrences of watercourses, and biotic interactions influence biological invasions of macrophytes. The abundance of native species can be positively or negatively correlated with the occurrences of invasives. Urochloa subquadripara is an invasive in natural or disturbed habitats co-occurring with the natives Eichhornia crassipes and Salvinia minima in South America. Aquatic plant communities can be altered by climate change, so species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for predicting invaded areas. This study aimed to apply an SDM to study correlations of U. subquadripara with the potential distributions of native species E. crassipes and S. minima. Occurrence data for U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima were collected from databases and in consultation with the published literature. Parameters encompassing biological information of the species were entered into the CLIMEX software and used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The species co-occurrence was performed based on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), and weights were assigned using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). It was observed that U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima had a higher occurrence in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it is predicted that these species may move to high latitudes from climatic changes. Considering climate changes, such as the increase in temperature and CO2, the risk of invasion by U. subquadripara in the northern hemisphere is mainly in lakes, whereas the areas conducive to invasions are rivers and reservoirs in the southern hemisphere. In general, emerging and floating macrophyte species such as U. subquadripara, E. crassipes, and S. minima will be favored, causing suppression of submerged species. Therefore, identifying the potential distribution of these species allows the creation of pre-invasion intervention strategies.

Tataridas, A., M. Moreira, L. Frazão, P. Kanatas, N. Ota, and I. Travlos. 2023. Biology of Invasive Plants 5. Solanum elaeagnifolium Cav. Invasive Plant Science and Management: 1–53.

(no abstract available)

Rosas, M. R., R. A. Segovia, and P. C. Guerrero. 2023. Climatic Niche Dynamics of the Astereae Lineage and Haplopappus Species Distribution following Amphitropical Long-Distance Dispersal. Plants 12: 2721.

The tribe Astereae (Asteraceae) displays an American Amphitropical Disjunction. To understand the eco-evolutionary dynamics associated with a long-distance dispersal event and subsequent colonization of extratropical South America, we compared the climatic and geographic distributions of South American species with their closest North American relatives, focusing on the diverse South American Astereae genus, Haplopappus. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that two South American genera are closely related to seven North American genera. The climatic niche overlap (D = 0.5) between South and North America exhibits high stability (0.89), low expansion (0.12), and very low unfilling (0.04). The distribution of the North American species predicted the climatic and geographic space occupied by the South American species. In central Chile, Haplopappus showed a non-random latitudinal gradient in species richness, with Mediterranean climate variables mainly explaining the variation. Altitudinal patterns indicated peak richness at 600 m, declining at lower and higher elevations. These findings support climatic niche conservatism in shaping Haplopappus species distribution and diversity. Two major endemism zones were identified in central Chile and the southern region, with a transitional zone between Mediterranean and Temperate macro-bioclimates. Our results indicate strong niche conservatism following long-distance dispersal and slight niche expansion due to unique climatic variables in each hemisphere.