Paul Sintenis

The pantropical genus Dalbergia includes more than 250 species. Phylogenetic studies of the group are scarce and have only included two or three species distributed in Mexico. We obtained herbarium samples of Mexican, Central American, and South American species (sourced from MEXU). In addition, sequences of GenBank accessions were used to complement the study. Using internal transcribed spacer (ITS), the matK and rbcL sequences from 384 accessions comprising species from America, Asia, and Africa were sampled to evaluate phylogenetic relationships of Mexican species and infrageneric classifications based on morphological data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genus Dalbergia is monophyletic and originated in South America. The species distributed in Mexico are not a monophyletic clade but are divided into four clades with affinities to South American and Asian species clades. There is no correlation between geography and large-scale phylogeny. The estimated ages of the Mexican and Central American clades ranged from 11.32 Ma (Dalbergia granadillo clade) to 1.88 Ma (Dalbergia ecastaphyllum clade). Multiple long-distance dispersal events should be used to explain the current genus distribution.

Classically, vicariant phenomena have been essentially identified on the basis of biogeographical and ecological data. Here, we report unequivocal evidences that demonstrate that a physical–chemical characterization of the epicuticular waxes of the surface of plant leaves represents a very powerful strategy to get rich insight into vicariant events. We found vicariant similarity between Cercis siliquastrum L. (family Fabaceae, subfamily Cercidoideae) and Ceratonia siliqua L. (family Fabaceae, subfamily Caesalpinoideae). Both taxa converge in the Mediterranean basin (C. siliquastrum on the north and C. siliqua across the south), in similar habitats (sclerophyll communities of maquis) and climatic profiles. These species are the current representation of their subfamilies in the Mediterranean basin, where they overlap. Because of this biogeographic and ecological similarity, the environmental pattern of both taxa was found to be very significant. The physical–chemical analysis performed on the epicuticular waxes of C. siliquastrum and C. siliqua leaves provided relevant data that confirm the functional proximity between them. A striking resemblance was found in the epicuticular waxes of the abaxial surfaces of C. siliquastrum and C. siliqua leaves in terms of the dominant chemical compounds (1-triacontanol (C30) and 1-octacosanol (C28), respectively), morphology (intricate network of randomly organized nanometer-thick and micrometer-long plates), wettability (superhydrophobic character, with water contact angle values of 167.5 ± 0.5° and 162 ± 3°, respectively), and optical properties (in both species the light reflectance/absorptance of the abaxial surface is significantly higher/lower than that of the adaxial surface, but the overall trend in reflectance is qualitatively similar). These results enable us to include for the first time C. siliqua in the vicariant process exhibited by C. canadensis L., C. griffithii L., and C. siliquastrum.

Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2–4 times the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will perform under changing climates will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea), one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos), and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries are also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation-associated variables. Vaccinium vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the main threats to biodiversity conservation, with significant socio-economic and ecological impacts as they disrupt ecosystem services and compromise human well-being. Global change may exacerbate the impacts of IAS, since rising temperatures and human activities favour their introduction and range expansion. Therefore, anticipating the impacts of biological invasions is crucial to support decision-making for their management. In this work, the potential impacts of four invasive alien plant species: Ailanthus altissima, Baccharis halimifolia, Impatiens glandulifera and Pueraria montana, on the provision of three ecosystem services in Europe were evaluated under current and future climate change scenarios. Using a risk analysis protocol, we determined that the most affected services are food provisioning, soil erosion regulation and the maintenance of biological diversity. To evaluate future impacts, species distribution models were calibrated using bioclimatic, environmental and human impact variables. We found that most of continental Europe is suitable for the establishment of A. altissima, B. halimifolia and I. glandulifera, while the potential distribution of P. montana is more limited. Models anticipate a shift in the distribution range for the species towards the north and east of Europe under future scenarios. Bivariate analysis allowed the identification of trends for future impacts in ecosystem services by simultaneously visualising the potential distribution of invasive species and the provision of ecosystem services. Our models project an increase in critical and high impact areas on the analysed ecosystem services, with Western Europe and the British Isles as the most affected regions. In comparison, lower impacts are projected for the Mediterranean region, likely as a consequence of the northwards expansion of invaders. Measures need to be taken to mitigate the expansion and impact of invasive species as our work shows that it can jeopardise the provision of three key services in Europe.

The consequences of rising temperatures for trees will vary between species based on their abilities to acclimate their leaf thermoregulatory traits and photosynthetic thermal tolerances. We tested the hypotheses that adult trees in warmer growing conditions (1) acclimate their thermoregulatory traits to regulate leaf temperatures and (2) acclimate their thermal tolerances such that tolerances are positively correlated with leaf temperature, and that (3) species with broader thermal niche breadths have greater acclimatory abilities. To test these hypotheses, we measured leaf traits and thermal tolerances of seven focal tree species across steep thermal gradients in Miami’s urban heat island. We found that some functional traits varied significantly across air temperatures within species. For example, leaf thickness increased with maximum air temperature in three species, and leaf mass per area and leaf reflectance both increased with air temperature in one species. Only one species was marginally more homeothermic than expected by chance due to acclimation of its thermoregulatory traits, but this acclimation was insufficient to offset elevated air temperatures. Thermal tolerances acclimated to higher maximum air temperatures in two species. As a result of limited acclimation, leaf Thermal Safety Margins (TSMs) were narrower for trees in hotter areas. We found some support for our hypothesis that species with broader thermal niches are better at acclimating in order to maintain more-stable TSMs across the temperature gradients. These findings suggest that trees have limited abilities to acclimate to high temperatures and that thermal niche specialists may be at a heightened risk of thermal stress as global temperatures continue to rise.

Aim Although ecological niche models have been instrumental in understanding the widespread species distribution shifts under global change, rapid niche shifts limit model transferability to novel locations or time periods. Niche shifts during range expansion have been studied extensively in invasive species, but may also occur in native populations tracking climate change. We compared niche shifts during both types of range expansion in a Mediterranean annual plant to ask (i) whether the species' native range expansion tracked climate change, (ii) whether further range expansion was promoted by niche expansion, and (iii) how these results changed forecasts of two ongoing invasions in Australia and California. Location Eurasian Holarctic, California and Australia. Taxon Dittrichia graveolens (L.) Greuter (Asteraceae). Methods Niche shifts were quantified in both environmental and geographic space, using the framework of niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling and expansion (COUE) as well as maximum entropy modelling. We used the historic native distribution and climate data (1901–1930) to project the expected distribution in the present climate (1990–2019) and compared it to the observed current distribution of D. graveolens. Finally, we compared invasion forecasts based on the historic and present native niches. Results Dittrichia graveolens expanded its native range well beyond expectations based on the observed climate change, associated with a 5.5% niche expansion towards more temperate climates. In contrast, both invasions showed niche conservatism and were (still) constrained to climatic areas matching the historic native niche. Main conclusions Contrary to hypotheses in the literature, niche shifts are not necessarily more rapid in invasions than in native range expansions. We conclude that niche expansion during the process of climate tracking may cause further range expansion than expected based on climate change alone.

Aim The relationships between biome shifts and global environmental changes in temperate zone habitats have been extensively explored; yet, the historical dynamics of taxa found in the tropical rain forest (TRF) remain poorly known. This study aims to reconstruct the relationships between tropical rain forest shifts and global environmental changes through the patterns of historical biogeography of a pantropical family of monocots, the Zingiberaceae. Location Global. Taxon Zingiberaceae. Methods We sampled DNA sequences (nrITS, trnK, trnL-trnF and psbA-trnH) from GenBank for 77% of the genera, including 30% of species, in the Zingiberaceae. Global fossil records of the Zingiberaceae were collected from literatures. Rates of speciation, extinction and diversification were estimated based on phylogenetic data and fossil records through methods implemented in BAMM. Ancestral ranges were estimated using single-tree BioGeoBEARS and multiple-trees BioGeoBEARS in RASP. Dispersal rate through time and dispersal rate among regions were calculated in R based on the result of ancestral estimation. Results The common ancestor of the Zingiberaceae likely originated in northern Africa during the mid-Cretaceous, with later dispersal to the Asian tropics. Indo-Burma, rather than Malesia, was likely a provenance of the common ancestor of Alpinioideae–Zingiberoideae. Several abrupt shifts of evolutionary rates from the Palaeocene were synchronized with sudden global environmental changes. Main conclusions Integrating phylogenetic patterns with fossil records suggests that the Zingiberaceae dispersed to Asia through drift of the Indian Plate from Africa in the late Palaeocene. Formation of island chains, land corridors and warming temperatures facilitated the emigration of the Zingiberaceae to a broad distribution across the tropics. Moreover, dramatic fluctuations of the speciation rate of Zingiberoideae appear to have been synchronized with global climate fluctuations. In general, the evolutionary history of the Zingiberaceae broadens our understanding of the association between TRF shifts in distribution and past global environmental changes, especially the origin of TRF in Southeast Asia.

Crop landraces have unique local agroecological and societal functions and offer important genetic resources for plant breeding. Recognition of the value of landrace diversity and concern about its erosion on farms have led to sustained efforts to establish ex situ collections worldwide. The degree to which these efforts have succeeded in conserving landraces has not been comprehensively assessed. Here we modelled the potential distributions of eco-geographically distinguishable groups of landraces of 25 cereal, pulse and starchy root/tuber/fruit crops within their geographic regions of diversity. We then analysed the extent to which these landrace groups are represented in genebank collections, using geographic and ecological coverage metrics as a proxy for genetic diversity. We find that ex situ conservation of landrace groups is currently moderately comprehensive on average, with substantial variation among crops; a mean of 63% ± 12.6% of distributions is currently represented in genebanks. Breadfruit, bananas and plantains, lentils, common beans, chickpeas, barley and bread wheat landrace groups are among the most fully represented, whereas the largest conservation gaps persist for pearl millet, yams, finger millet, groundnut, potatoes and peas. Geographic regions prioritized for further collection of landrace groups for ex situ conservation include South Asia, the Mediterranean and West Asia, Mesoamerica, sub-Saharan Africa, the Andean mountains of South America and Central to East Asia. With further progress to fill these gaps, a high degree of representation of landrace group diversity in genebanks is feasible globally, thus fulfilling international targets for their ex situ conservation. By analysing the state of representation of traditional varieties of 25 major crops in ex situ repositories, this study demonstrates conservation progress made over more than a half-century and identifies the gaps remaining to be filled.

Aim Central America is largely covered by hyperdiverse, yet poorly understood, rain forests. Understorey palms are diverse components of these forests, but little is known about their historical assembly. It is not clear when palms in Central America reached present diversity levels and whether most species arrived from neighbouring regions or evolved locally. We addressed these questions using the most species-rich American palm clades indicative of rain forests. We reconstructed and compared their phylogenomic and biogeographical history with the diversification of 54 other plant lineages, to gain a better understanding of the processes that shaped the assembly of Central American rain forests. Location Central America. Time period Cretaceous to present. Major taxa studied Arecaceae: Arecoideae: Bactridinae, Chamaedoreeae, Geonomateae. Methods We sampled 218 species through fieldwork and living collections. We sequenced their genomic DNA using target sequence-capture procedures. Using 12 calibration points, we reconstructed dated phylogenies under three approaches (multispecies coalescent, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference), conducted biogeographical analyses (dispersal–extinction–cladogenesis) and estimated phylogenetic diversity metrics. Results Dated phylogenies revealed intense diversification in Central America from 12 Ma. Local diversification events were four times more frequent than dispersal events, and we found strong phylogenetic clustering in relationship to Central America. Main conclusions Our results suggest that most understorey palm species that characterize the Central American rain forests today evolved locally after repeated dispersal events, mostly from South America. Understorey palms in Central American rain forests diversified primarily after closure of the Central American Seaway at c. 13 Ma, suggesting that the Great American Biotic Interchange was a major trigger for plant diversification in Central American rain forests. This recent diversification contrasts with the much earlier existence of rain forest palms in neighbouring South America since c. 58 Ma. We found similar timings of diversification in 54 other seed plant lineages, suggesting an unexpectedly recent assembly of the hyperdiverse Central American flora.

The early Eocene (∼56‐48 million years ago) is characterised by high CO2 estimates (1200‐2500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10 to 16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g. Africa). Here we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in the Deep‐time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre‐industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model‐ and geographically dependent, however these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre‐industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low‐level circulation is replaced by increased south‐westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model‐data comparison using newly‐compiled quantitative climate estimates from palaeobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.