Gideon Kruseman

Predicting global change effects poses significant challenges due to the intricate interplay between climate change and anthropogenic stressors in shaping ecological communities and their function, such as pest outbreak risk. Termites are ecosystem engineers, yet some pest species are causing worldwide economic losses. While habitat fragmentation seems to drive pest-dominated termite communities, its interaction with climate change effect remains unknown. We test whether climate and habitat fragmentation interactively alter interspecific competition that may limit pest termite risk. Leveraging global termite co-occurrence including 280 pest species, we found that competitively superior termite species (e.g., large bodied) increased in large and continuous habitats solely at high precipitation. While competitive species suppressed pest species globally, habitat fragmentation drove pest termite risk only in humid biomes. Unfortunately, hu- mid tropics have experienced vast forest fragmentation and rainfall reduction over the past decades. These stressors, if not stopped, may drive pest termite risk, potentially via competitive release.

Abstract  Background and aims Crop wild relatives, exposed to strong natural selection, exhibit effective tolerance traits against stresses. While an aggressive root proliferation phenotype has long been considered advantageous for a range of stresses, it appears to be counterproductive under drought due to its high metabolic cost. Recently, a parsimonious root phenotype, metabolically more efficient, has been suggested to be better adapted to semiarid environments, although it is not clear that this phenotype is a trait exhibited by crop wild relatives. Methods Firstly, we analysed the root phenotype and carbon metabolism in four Medicago crop wild relatives adapted to a semiarid environment and compared them with the cultivated M. truncatula Jemalong (A17). Secondly, we exposed the cultivated (probably the least adapted genotype to aridity) and the wild (the most common one in arid zones) M. truncatula genotypes to water deficit. The carbon metabolism response in different parts of their roots was analysed. Results A reduced carbon investment per unit of root length was a common trait in the four wild genotypes, indicative of an evolution towards a parsimonious root phenotype. During the water deficit experiment, the wild M. truncatula showed higher tolerance to drought, along with a superior ability of its taproot to partition sucrose and enhanced capacity of its fibrous roots to maintain sugar homeostasis. Conclusion A parsimonious root phenotype and the spatial specialization of root carbon metabolism represent two important drought tolerance traits. This work provides relevant findings to understand the response of Medicago species roots to water deficit.

Assessing the factors driving intraspecific phenotypic variation is crucial to understand the evolutionary trajectories of plant populations and predict their vulnerability to climate change. Environmental gradients often lead to phenotypic divergence in functional traits and their plasticity across populations. We studied the entire environmental range of the Mediterranean gypsum endemic shrub Helianthemum squamatum to evaluate the factors underlying quantitative population differentiation and phenotypic plasticity to drought, using a common garden with 16 populations that covered the main geographic and the entire climatic range of the species. Sampling followed a hierarchical approach to assess trait genetic variation within and among four distinct geographical regions. We found high but similar plastic responses across populations, which were consistent with adaptive plasticity to drought, including advanced phenology, more sclerophyllous leaves, higher water use efficiency and larger seeds in dry conditions. Despite these generally similar plastic responses, we found significant population differentiation in quantitative traits, part of which was structured at the regional scale. Such differentiation was not associated with environmental variation, including differences in climate and soil conditions. This suggests that non-adaptive processes might have had a role on genetic differentiation in H. squamatum, likely due to the island-like configuration of gypsum habitats and the lack of effective seed dispersal of the study species. Our results emphasize the role of phenotypic plasticity in adaptive drought response and the importance of considering both adaptive and non-adaptive processes shaping intraspecific phenotypic variation, which is crucial for predicting plant population vulnerability to climate change.

Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates and are in dire need of conservation intervention to ensure their continued survival. They exhibit unique features including a high diversity of reproductive strategies, permeable and specialized skin capable of producing toxins and antimicrobial compounds, multiple genetic mechanisms of sex determination and in some lineages, the ability to regenerate limbs and organs. Although genomic approaches would shed light on these unique traits and aid conservation, sequencing and assembly of amphibian genomes has lagged behind other taxa due to their comparatively large genome sizes. Fortunately, the development of long‐read sequencing technologies and initiatives has led to a recent burst of new amphibian genome assemblies. Although growing, the field of amphibian genomics suffers from the lack of annotation resources, tools for working with challenging genomes and lack of high‐quality assemblies in multiple clades of amphibians. Here, we analyse 51 publicly available amphibian genomes to evaluate their usefulness for functional genomics research. We report considerable variation in genome assembly quality and completeness and report some of the highest transposable element and repeat contents of any vertebrate. Additionally, we detected an association between transposable element content and climatic variables. Our analysis provides evidence of conserved genome synteny despite the long divergence times of this group, but we also highlight inconsistencies in chromosome naming and orientation across genome assemblies. We discuss sequencing gaps in the phylogeny and suggest key targets for future sequencing endeavours. Finally, we propose increased investment in amphibian genomics research to promote their conservation.

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18‐years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast).Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year−1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges.Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity.Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges.We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges.This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

Parasitic weeds in the genera Orobanche, Phelipanche (broomrapes) and Striga (witchweeds) have a devastating impact on food security across much of Africa, Asia and the Mediterranean Basin. Yet, how climatic factors might affect the range expansion of these weeds in the context of global environmental change remains unexplored. We examined satellite‐based environmental variables such as surface temperature, root zone soil moisture, and elevation, in relation to parasitic weed distribution and environmental conditions over time, in combination with observational data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Our analysis reveals contrasting environmental and altitude preferences in the genera Striga and Orobanche. Asiatic witchweed (Striga asiatica), which infests corn, rice, sorghum, and sugar cane crops, appears to be expanding its range in high elevation habitats. It also shows a significant association with heat‐moisture coupling events, the frequency of which is rising in such environments. These results point to geographical shifts in distribution and abundance in parasitic weeds due to climate change.

Understanding species from an ecological and phylogenetic perspective facilitates an understanding of their conservation status in relation to the changing world. The frog genus Pelophylax is among the largest in terms of amphibian biomass in the Palearctic, but species have not been thoroughly studied at the Asian continental scale. The phylogeographic relationship, behavioural ecology, and ecological requirements within the genus need clarification, despite generally good local coverage. Here, for the first time, we conducted a literature review focused on phylogeography and behavioural ecology, supported by ecological niche modelling of twelve Asian Pelophylax lineages. Finally, we compiled the known threats for each of the lineages. We first determined the presence of twelve species and species-candidate lineages. In terms of behavioural ecology, the main difference among lineages is the time to metamorphosis and the time to reach sexual maturity. The ecological models highlighted a match between the known presence of each clade and their suitable habitat and highlighted the Syr Darya drainage on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea for the non-described Pelophylax “Syr Darya lineage”. Finally, we highlighted the greatest variation among lineages in terms of threats, as some lineages are threatened by numerous factors, whereas others are expanding.

The introduction of bees for agricultural production in distinct parts of the world and poor management have led to invasion processes that affect biodiversity, significantly impacting native species. Different Bombus species with invasive potential have been recorded spreading in different regions worldwide, generating ecological and economic losses. We applied environmental niche and potential distribution analyses to four species of the genus Bombus to evaluate the similarities and differences between their native and invaded ranges. We found that B. impatiens has an extended environmental niche, going from dry environmental conditions in the native range to warmer and wetter conditions in the invaded range. Bombus ruderatus also exhibited an extended environmental niche with drier and warmer conditions in the invaded range than in its native range. Bombus subterraneus expanded its environmental niche from cooler and wetter conditions in the native range to drier and warmer conditions in the invaded range. Finally, B. terrestris showed the most significant variation in the environmental niche, extending to areas with similar and different environmental conditions from its native range. The distribution models agreed with the known distributions for the four Bombus species, presenting geographic areas known to be occupied by each species in different regions worldwide. The niche analysis indicate shifts in the niches from the native to the invaded distribution area of the bee species. Still, niche similarities were observed in the areas of greatest suitability in the potential distribution for B. ruderatus, B. subterraneus, and B. terrestris, and to a lesser degree in the same areas with B. impatiens. These species require similar environmental conditions as in their native ranges to be established in their introduced ranges. Still, they can adapt to changes in temperature and humidity, allowing them to expand their ranges into new climatic conditions.

The fundamental ecological niche is determined by individuals’ ability to cope with abiotic conditions; however, biotic interactions (e.g., competition) can also influence species’ distribution ranges, reducing the fundamental niche to the realized niche. Several species of the genera Clibanarius and Calcinus overlap in their distributions. The agonistically dominant Calcinus species inhabits mostly lower intertidal levels, while Clibanarius is more abundant in the abiotically demanding upper strata. Additionally, evidence of microhabitat competitive exclusion shows that the superior competitor, Ca . californiensis , causes the vertical displacement of Cl . albidigitus . However, it is unknown whether competitive exclusion between species of these genera has influenced their distributions at the macroecological scale. We used ecological niche models to compare the distribution and the habitat suitability of species of these genera. We used databases of species occurrences and bioclimatic and geophysical variables to model and map the species’ niches. Species of the two hermit crab genera showed strong overlap in their habitat suitability. Calcinus and Clibanarius species occur in broad sympatry at the regional scale without regions of partial overlap that would indicate competitive exclusion. Therefore, competitive exclusion among species of these genera seems to act only on a microhabitat scale in the most dynamic shoreline areas.

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the most prevalent and economically damaging virus in grapevines and is found on nearly all continents, except Antarctica. Ten mealybugs act as vector insects transmitting the GLRaV-3. Understanding the potential distribution range of vector insects under climate change is crucial for preventing and managing vector insects and controlling and delaying the spread of GLRaV-3. This study investigated the potential geographical range of insect vectors of GLRaV-3 worldwide using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under environmental variables. The potential distributions of these insects were projected for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under the three climate change scenarios. The results showed that the potential distribution range of most vector insects is concentrated in Southeastern North America, Europe, Asia, and Southeast Australia. Most vector insects contract their potential distribution ranges under climate-change conditions. The stacked model suggested that potential distribution hotspots of vector insects were present in Southeastern North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Southeast Australia. The potential distribution range of hotspots would shrink with climate change. These results provide important information for governmental decision-makers and farmers in developing control and management strategies against vector insects of GLRaV-3. They can also serve as references for studies on other insect vectors.