Frank Nicholas Meyer

岛屿因具有明确的地理边界, 是检验多个生态学过程如何构建生物多样性的理想平台之一。岛屿属性、气候因素、人 类干扰等通过影响物种选择、扩散等过程, 进而影响着岛屿生物多样性格局。目前对于岛屿植物丰富度格局如何受这些因素 的共同作用的认识仍不充分, 尤其是在人类干扰较强的海岛。本文基于我国第一大群岛舟山群岛92个岛屿较完整的种子植物 分布数据, 采用一般线性回归和广义线性模型(伪泊松分布)定量评估岛屿属性(面积、隔离度、形状指数)、气候(温度、降水 及其季节性)和人类干扰对本土植物总丰富度及不同生长型、叶物候型植物丰富度格局的影响, 采用beta回归分析常绿阔叶木 本比率(常绿阔叶木本植物丰富度/所有阔叶木本植物丰富度)的影响因素。结果发现: 92个岛屿共记录本土植物1,158种, 其中 乔木108种、灌木318种、草本732种; 岛屿面积是对植物总丰富度影响最大的因子, 其次是年降水量和隔离度; 乔木丰富度随 隔离度增加而减少的趋势比灌木和草本更明显; 常绿阔叶和落叶阔叶木本植物丰富度格局与总体基本一致, 年降水量对常绿 阔叶木本的影响大于落叶阔叶木本, 但常绿阔叶木本比率仅受温度季节性的强烈影响。岛屿面积、年降水量、温度季节性等 是塑造舟山群岛所有植物及其不同功能型组(生长型、叶物候型)植物丰富度格局的主要决定因素。

(no abstract available)

How to effectively obtain species‐related low‐dimensional data from massive environmental variables has become an urgent problem for species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we will explore whether dimensionality reduction on environmental variables can improve the predictive performance of SDMs. We first used two linear (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and independent components analysis) and two nonlinear (i.e., kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection) dimensionality reduction techniques (DRTs) to reduce the dimensionality of high‐dimensional environmental data. Then, we established five SDMs based on the environmental variables of dimensionality reduction for 23 real plant species and nine virtual species, and compared the predictive performance of those with the SDMs based on the selected environmental variables through Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC). In addition, we studied the effects of DRTs, model complexity, and sample size on the predictive performance of SDMs. The predictive performance of SDMs under DRTs other than KPCA is better than using PCC. And the predictive performance of SDMs using linear DRTs is better than using nonlinear DRTs. In addition, using DRTs to deal with environmental variables has no less impact on the predictive performance of SDMs than model complexity and sample size. When the model complexity is at the complex level, PCA can improve the predictive performance of SDMs the most by 2.55% compared with PCC. At the middle level of sample size, the PCA improved the predictive performance of SDMs by 2.68% compared with the PCC. Our study demonstrates that DRTs have a significant effect on the predictive performance of SDMs. Specifically, linear DRTs, especially PCA, are more effective at improving model predictive performance under relatively complex model complexity or large sample sizes.

史前人类与其生存环境，特别是与植被之间的相互作用一直是人们关注的焦点。气候变化与人类活动对植 被覆盖格局的塑造均有重要影响，厘清植被分布及其植被变化背后的气候或人为因素，有助于更好地认识人类活 动 对 植 被 环 境 的 影 响 程 度 与 范 围 。 本 研 究 对 青 藏 高 原 松 属 (Pinusspp.)植 被 适 生 区 分 布 动 态 历 史 进 行 了 物 种 分 布 模型模拟，并结合环境考古学、古生态学等多学科方法，探究青藏高原松属植被分布变化历史及其驱动因素。结 果表明，基于最大熵(MaxEnt)算法并结合 R语言包 ENMeval来优化参数设置的模型性能表现良好且稳健，较为 准确模拟松属在青藏高原地区不同时期的适生区分布动态。高原上松属适生区在末次冰盛期(LGM)分布最小， 仅在东缘的河谷局地;在全新世早、中期分布达到最大值，到全新世晚期部分区域分布缩小，高原东北部高度适 生区向 2500ma.s.l.上下的低海拔谷地收缩，整体上与高原气候变化趋势大体一致。结合化石花粉、木炭等证据 表明，全新世中晚期以前，人类对高原松属植被影响总体尚不显著;进入全新世晚期，农业技术的进步促使高原 东北部人口快速增加，高原上现已发现的古遗址也高度集中在此。结合多项考古证据表明，人类对松属为代表的 林木资源规模化开发行为开始显著干扰了当地植被，人类对松属等针叶林木材资源的利用可能是该地区树种向 阔叶林树种演替的重要驱动因素之一。

Risk analysis plays a crucial role in regulating and managing alien and invasive species but can be time-consuming and costly. Alternatively, combining invasion and impact history with species distribution models offers a cost-effective and time-efficient approach to assess invasion risk and identify species for which a comprehensive risk analysis should take precedence. We conducted such an assessment for six traded alien fern species, determining their invasion risk in countries where they are traded. Four of the species (Dicksonia antarctica, Dryopteris erythrosora, Lygodium japonicum, and Phlebodium aureum) showed limited global distributions, while Adiantum raddianum and Sphaeropteris cooperi had broader distributions. A. raddianum, however, was the only species found to pose a high invasion risk in two known trade countries – the USA and Australia – and requires a complete risk analysis to determine the appropriate regulatory responses. Dicksonia antarctica, Phlebodium aureum (for New Zealand), and Dryopteris erythrosora (for the USA) posed a medium risk of invasion due to the lack of evidence of impacts, and a complete risk analysis is thus deemed less crucial for these species in these countries. For other species, suitable environments were not predicted in the countries where they are traded, thus the risk of invasion is low, and a complete risk analysis is not required. For species in countries where suitable environments are predicted but no trade information or presence data are available, risk assessments are recommended to better determine the risk posed. Despite the relatively limited potential global distribution of the studied ferns relative to other major plant invaders (e.g., Pinus spp. and Acacia spp.), their history of invasion, documented impacts in pristine environments, and high propagule pressure from trade warrants concern, possibly necessitating legislative and regulatory measures in environmentally suitable regions.

Evolutionary correlations between chemical defense and protection by mutualist bodyguards have been long predicted, but tests of these pattern remain rare. We use a phylogenetic framework to test for evolutionary correlations indicative of trade-offs or synergisms between direct defense in the form of plant secondary metabolism, and indirect defense in the form of leaf domatia, across 33 species in the wild grape genus, Vitis. We also performed a bioassay with a generalist herbivore to associate our chemical phenotypes with herbivore palatability. Finally, we tested whether defensive traits correlate with the average abiotic characteristics of each species’ contemporary range and whether these correlations were consistent with plant defense theory. We found a negative evolutionary correlation between domatia size and the diversity of secondary metabolites in Vitis leaf tissue across the genus, and also that leaves with a higher diversity and richness of secondary metabolites were less palatable to a generalist herbivore, consistent with a trade-off in chemical and mutualistic defense investment. Predictions from plant defense theory were not supported by associations between investment in defense phenotypes and abiotic variables. Our work demonstrates an evolutionary pattern indicative of a trade-off between indirect and direct defense strategies across the Vitis genus.

Aim Fruit selection by animal dispersers with different mobility directly impacts plant geographical range size, which, in turn, may impact plant diversification. Here, we examine the interaction between fruit colour, range size and diversification rate in palms by testing two hypotheses: (1) species with fruit colours attractive to birds have larger range sizes due to high dispersal ability and (2) disperser mobility affects whether small or large range size has higher diversification, and intermediate range size is expected to lead to the highest diversification rate regardless of disperser. Location Global. Time Period Contemporary (or present). Major Taxa Studied Palms (Arecaceae). Methods Palm species were grouped based on likely animal disperser group for given fruit colours. Range sizes were estimated by constructing alpha convex hull polygons from distribution data. We examined disperser group, range size or an interaction of both as possible drivers of change in diversification rate over time in a likelihood dynamic model (Several Examined State-dependent Speciation and Extinction [SecSSE]). Models were fitted, rate estimates were retrieved and likelihoods were compared to those of appropriate null models. Results Species with fruit colours associated with mammal dispersal had larger ranges than those with colours associated with bird dispersal. The best fitting SecSSE models indicated that the examined traits were not the primary driver of the heterogeneity in diversification rates in the model. Extinction rate complexity had a marked impact on model performance and on diversification rates. Main Conclusions Two traits related to dispersal mobility, range size and fruit colour, were not identified as the main drivers of diversification in palms. Increased model extinction rate complexity led to better performing models, which indicates that net diversification should be estimated rather than speciation alone. However, increased complexity may lead to incorrect SecSSE model conclusions without careful consideration. Finally, we find palms with more mobile dispersers do not have larger range sizes, meaning other factors are more important determinants of range size.

One of the key strategies for species to respond to climate change is range shift. It is commonly believed that species will migrate towards the poles and higher elevations due to climate change. However, some species may also shift in opposite directions (i.e., equatorward) to adapt to changes in other climatic variables beyond climatic isotherms. In this study, we focused on two evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species endemic to China and used ensemble species distribution models to project their potential distribution shifts and extinction risk under two shared socioeconomic pathways of six general circulation models for the years 2050 and 2070. We also investigated the relative importance of each climatic variable in explaining range shifts of these two species. Our findings indicate a sharp reduction in the habitat suitability for both species. Q. baronii and Q. dolicholepis are projected to experience severe range contractions, losing over 30 % and 100 % of their suitable habitats under SSP585 in the 2070s, respectively. Under the assumption of universal migration in future climate scenarios, Q. baronii is expected to move towards the northwest (~105 km), southwest (~73 km), and high elevation (180–270 m). The range shifts of both species are driven by temperature and precipitation variables, not only annual mean temperature. Specifically, precipitation seasonality and temperature annual range were the most crucial environmental variables, causing the contraction and expansion of Q. baronii and contraction of Q. dolicholepis, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of considering additional climatic variables beyond the annual mean temperature to explain species range shifts in multiple directions.

Abstract Background and Aims Cork oaks (Quercus sect. Cerris) comprise 15 extant species in Eurasia. Despite being a small clade, they display a range of leaf morphologies comparable to the largest sections (>100 spp.) in Quercus. Their fossil record extends back to the Eocene. Here, we explore how cork oaks achieved their modern ranges and how legacy effects may explain niche evolution in modern species of section Cerris and its sister section Ilex, the holly oaks. Methods We inferred a dated phylogeny for cork and holly oaks using a reduced-representation next-generation sequencing method, restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) and used D-statistics to investigate gene flow hypotheses. We estimated divergence times using a fossilized birth-death (FBD) model calibrated with 47 fossils. We used Köppen profiles, selected bioclimatic parameters, and forest biomes occupied by modern species to infer ancestral climatic and biotic niches. Key Results East Asian and Western Eurasian cork oaks diverged initially in the Eocene. Subsequently, four Western Eurasian lineages (subsections) differentiated during the Oligocene and Miocene. Evolution of leaf size, form, and texture partly correlates with multiple transitions from ancestral humid temperate climates to Mediterranean, arid, and continental climates. Distantly related but ecologically similar species converged on similar leaf traits in the process. Conclusions Originating in temperate (frost-free) biomes, Eocene to Oligocene ranges of the primarily deciduous cork oaks were restricted to higher latitudes (Siberia to north of Paratethys). Members of the evergreen holly oaks (sect. Ilex) also originated in temperate biomes but migrated south- and south-westwards into then-(sub)tropical southern China and south-eastern Tibet during the Eocene, then westwards along existing pre-Himalayan mountain ranges. Divergent biogeographic histories and deep-time phylogenetic legacies—in cold and drought tolerance, nutrient storage, and fire resistance—thus account for the modern species mosaic of Western Eurasian oak communities, which comprise oaks belonging to four sections.

Paleoclimate reconstructions can provide a window into the environmental conditions in Earth history when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than today. In the eastern USA, paleoclimate reconstructions are sparse, because terrestrial sedimentary deposits are rare. Despite this, the eastern USA has the largest population and population density in North America, and understanding the effects of current and future climate change is of vital importance. Here, we provide terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions of the eastern USA from Miocene fossil floras. Additionally, we compare proxy paleoclimate reconstructions from the warmest period in the Miocene, the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), to those of an MCO Earth System Model. Reconstructed Miocene temperatures and precipitation north of 35°N are higher than modern. In contrast, south of 35°N, temperatures and precipitation are similar to today, suggesting a poleward amplification effect in eastern North America. Reconstructed Miocene rainfall seasonality was predominantly higher than modern, regardless of latitude, indicating greater variability in intra-annual moisture transport. Reconstructed climates are almost uniformly in the temperate seasonal forest biome, but heterogeneity of specific forest types is evident. Reconstructed Miocene terrestrial temperatures from the eastern USA are lower than modeled temperatures and coeval Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, reconstructed rainfall is consistent with modeled rainfall. Our results show that during the Miocene, climate was most different from modern in the northeastern states, and may suggest a drastic reduction in the meridional temperature gradient along the North American east coast compared to today.