François Ducloux

Some plant lineages remain within the same biome over time (biome conservatism), whereas others seem to adapt more easily to new biomes. The c. 398 species (14 genera) of subfamily Cercidoideae (Leguminosae or Fabaceae) are found in many biomes around the world, particularly in the tropical regions of South America, Asia and Africa, and display a variety of growth forms (small trees, shrubs, lianas and herbaceous perennials). Species distribution maps derived from cleaned occurrence records were compiled and compared with existing biome maps and with the literature to assign species to biomes. Rainforest (144 species), succulent (44 species), savanna (36 species), and temperate (10 species) biomes were found to be important in describing the global distribution of Cercidoideae, with many species occurring in more than one biome. Two phylogenetically isolated species-poor temperate ( Cercis ) and succulent ( Adenolobus ) biome lineages are sister to two broadly distributed species-rich tropical clades. Ancestral state reconstructions on a time-calibrated phylogeny suggest biome shifts occurred throughout the evolutionary history of the subfamily, with shifts between the succulent and rainforest biomes, from the rainforest to savanna, from the succulent to savanna biome, and one early occurring shift into (or from) the temperate biome. Of the 26 inferred shifts in biome, three are closely associated with a shift from the ancestral tree/shrub growth form to a liana or herbaceous perennial habit. Only three of the 13 inferred transcontinental dispersal events are associated with biome shifts. Overall, we find that biome shifts tend to occur within the same continent and that dispersals to new continents tend to occur within the same biome, but that nonetheless the biome-conserved and biogeographically structured Cercidoideae have been able to adapt to different environments through time.

Biological invasions pose a global challenge, affecting ecosystems worldwide and human societies. Knowledge of the evolutionary history of invasive species is critical to understanding their current invasion success and projecting their future spread. However, to date, few studies have addressed the evolutionary history and potential future spread of invaders simultaneously. In this study, we explored both evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of the distribution of Reynoutria japonica, known as one of the world's worst plant invaders. We analysed 265 R. japonica samples from its current geographical ranges across three continents, using seven chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) markers to establish the phylogenetic relationships among extant populations. We combined these with ecological niche modelling to infer historical and more recent migration patterns and predict potential future distribution changes under climate change. Our results indicate that climate fluctuations and sea level changes likely facilitated the expansion of R. japonica from southern Japan to continental East Asia in the Pliocene, followed by a contraction in East Asian populations. In the recent Holocene, human activities have then enabled a linage of this species to spread from Japan to Europe and North America, resulting in three major global clades. Future climate scenarios suggest a northward expansion of R. japonica in Europe and North America, but shrinking habitat in China. Our study, thus, demonstrates the complex influences of historical climate‐driven migrations, human activities and future climate changes on the global distribution of an invasive species.

The Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) is a phytophagous pest that is seriously endangering Salix babylonica Linn. and S. matsudana Koidz. Poor control can damage local ecosystems, resulting in economic losses and management risks. In the context of climate change, the climatic ecological niche of organisms is no longer compatible with the surrounding environment. To mitigate the effects of climate change, some organisms respond adaptively to climate change through different mechanisms and in different ways. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to explore the potential distribution areas of A. glabripennis and its host plants, S. babylonica and S. matsudana, in response to current and future climate and to determine their movement routes and relative dynamics. The results show that the optimized model exhibits the lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. It is important to note that both temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for A. glabripennis and its host plants. This is evidenced by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for the host plants. Similarly, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the primary bioclimatic variables constraining the dispersal of A. glabripennis. Under climate change, the suitable areas of both S. babylonica and S. matsudana are declining, while the suitable areas of A. glabripennis are expanding in future climates. Furthermore, three species exhibited a proclivity for migration to higher latitudes in response to climate change. In conclusion, this study contributes to our understanding of the biogeographic characteristics of these A. glabripennis, S. babylonica, and S. matsudana and provides a basis for the formulation of timely conservation strategies to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. This is of great significance for the rational management, utilization, and protection of forest ecosystems in China.

根据最新分类系统更新中国葡萄科(Vitaceae)特有种名录,整合点分布数据和县级面分布数据,绘制葡萄科特有种、广布特有种和狭域特有种的分布中心,利用MaxEnt模型模拟未来气候变化下部分中国葡萄科特有种的适生区,识别出值得重点关注的未来分布范围缩小的物种.结果显示:中国葡萄科特有种丰富,共有12属94种,热点地区主要集中在华中、东南及西南地区.中国葡萄科狭域特有种热点地区主要集中在西南边境和东南沿海地区,而广布特有种的分布格局与所有特有种的基本一致.MaxEnt模型模拟结果显示:在未来气候条件下,中国葡萄科42种特有种中有33种未来的总适生区和高适生区均呈现明显扩大趋势,9种未来的总适生区或高适生区呈现明显缩小趋势;中国葡萄科42种特有种中有37种的未来总适生区呈现向北部高纬度地区或西部高海拔地区迁移的趋势.综上所述,中国葡萄科特有种热点地区均位于中国生物多样性极其丰富的区域,但部分热点地区附近的保护地面积小且分布零散,保护效力偏低.建议就近整合零散的保护地,建立面积更大、连通性更高的国家公园或自然保护区.

AbstractPremiseThe ecological conditions that constrain plants to an environmental niche are assumed to be constant through time. While the fossil record has been used previously to test for niche conservatism of woody flowering plants, additional studies are needed in other plant groups especially since they can provide insight with paleoclimatic reconstructions, high biodiversity in modern terrestrial ecosystems, and significant contributions to agriculture.MethodsWe tested climatic niche conservatism across time by characterizing the climatic niches of living herbaceous ginger plants (Zingiberaceae) and woody dawn redwood (Metasequoia) against paleoniches reconstructed based on fossil distribution data and paleoclimatic models.ResultsDespite few fossil Zingiberaceae occurrences in the latitudinal tropics, unlike living Zingiberaceae, extinct Zingiberaceae likely experienced paratropical conditions in the higher latitudes, especially in the Cretaceous and Paleogene. The living and fossil distributions of Metasequoia largely remain in the upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The Zingiberaceae shifted from an initial subtropical climatic paleoniche in the Cretaceous, toward a temperate regime in the late Cenozoic; Metasequoia occupied a more consistent climatic niche over the same time intervals.ConclusionsBecause of the inconsistent climatic niches of Zingiberaceae over geologic time, we are less confident of using them for taxonomic‐based paleoclimatic reconstruction methods like nearest living relative, which assume a consistent climatic niche between extant and extinct relatives; we argue that the consistent climatic niche of Metasequoia is more appropriate for these reconstructions. Niche conservatism cannot be assumed between extant and extinct plants and should be tested further in groups used for paleoclimatic reconstructions.

Abstract After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.

Saussurea is one of the largest and most rapidly evolving genera within the Asteraceae, comprising approximately 520 species from the Northern Hemisphere. A comprehensive infrageneric classification, supported by robust phylogenetic trees and corroborated by morphological and other data, has not yet been published. For the first time, we recovered a well-resolved nuclear phylogeny of Saussurea consisting of four main clades, which was also supported by morphological data. Our analyses show that ancient hybridization is the most likely source of deep cytoplasmic-nuclear conflict in Saussurea, and a phylogeny based on nuclear data is more suitable than one based on chloroplast data for exploring the infrageneric classification of Saussurea. Based on the nuclear phylogeny obtained and morphological characters, we proposed a revised infrageneric taxonomy of Saussurea, which includes four subgenera and 13 sections. Specifically, 1) S. sect. Cincta, S. sect. Gymnocline, S. sect. Lagurostemon, and S. sect. Strictae were moved from S. subg. Saussurea to S. subg. Amphilaena, 2) S. sect. Pseudoeriocoryne was moved from S. subg. Eriocoryne to S. subg. Amphilaena, and 3) S. sect. Laguranthera was moved from S. subg. Saussurea to S. subg. Theodorea.

Considering the global biodiversity crisis and the growing demand for medicinal plants, it is crucial to preserve therapeutically useful herbs. From a conservation management perspective under climate change, identifying areas that enable valuable natural resources to persist in the future is crucial. Machine learning-based models are commonly used to estimate the locations of climate refugia, which are critical for the effective species conservation. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of global warming on the epiphytic medicinal orchid— Bulbophyllum odoratissimum. Given how the long-term survival of plants inhabiting shrubs and trees depends on the availability of suitable phorophyets, in this research potential range changes in reported orchid plant hosts were evaluated. According to conducted analyses, global warming will cause a decline in the coverage of the suitable niches for B. odoratissimum and its main phorophyte. The most significant habitat loss in the case of the studied orchid and Pistacia weinmannifolia will be observed in the southern part of their geographical ranges and some new niches will simultaneously become available for these plants in the northern part. Climate change will significantly increase the overlap of geographical ranges of P. weinmannifolia and the orchid. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario trees will be available for more than 56% of the orchid population. Other analyzed phorophytes, will be available for B. odoratissimum to a very reduced extent, as orchids will only utilize these species as habitats only occasionally. This study provides data on the distribution of climatic refugia of B. odoratissimum under global warming. Moreover, this is the first evaluation of the future geographical ranges for its phorophytes. According to the conducted analyses, only one of the previously reported tree species which are inhabited by B. odoratissimum , P. weinmannifolia, can serve as a phorophyte for this orchid in the future. In this study, the areas designated as suitable for the occurrence of both orchids and their phorophytes should be considered priority conservation areas for the studied medicinal plants.

The Khanka Lowland forest-steppe is the most eastern outpost of the Eurasian steppe biome. It includes unique grassland plant communities with rare steppe species. These coenosis have changed under the influence of anthropogenic activity, especially during the last 100 years and included both typical steppe species and nemoral mesophytic species. To distinguish these ecological groups of plants the random forest method with three datasets of environmental variables was applied. Specifically, a model of classification with the most important bioindices to predict a mesophytic ecological group of plants with a sensitivity greater than 80% was constructed. The data demonstrated the presence of steppe species that arrived at different times in the Primorye Territory. Most of these species are associated with the Mongolian-Daurian relict steppe complex and habit in the Khanka Lowland. Other species occur only in mountains in Primorye Territory and do not persist in the Khanka Lowland. These findings emphasize the presence of relict steppe communities with a complex of true steppe species in the Khanka Lowland. Steppe communities exhibit features of anthropogenic influence definitely through the long land use period but are not anthropogenic in origin. The most steppe species are located at the eastern border of distribution in the Khanka Lowlands and are valuable in terms of conservation and sources of information about steppe species origin and the emergence of the steppe biome as a whole.

Curculio davidi is a major pest in chestnut-producing regions in China, and there have been many studies on its occurrence, biological characteristics, and management strategies. However, few of them have focused on the distribution changes of the pest under climate change. In this study, the MaxEnt model (version 3.3.4) and ArcGIS software (version 10.8) were first employed to map the current and future (2050 s and 2080 s) suitable habitat distribution of the weevil under climate change (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the highly suitable areas for C. davidi are mainly concentrated in Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, the coastal areas of Shandong, and eastern Guizhou, northwestern Hunan, and northeastern Sichuan provinces in China. Through the Jackknife test of 19 climate factors, six climate factors affecting the distribution of C. davidi were identified, with precipitation from July (Prec7), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), and temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (Bio4) contributing a combined percentage of 86.3%. Under three different climate scenarios (CMIP 6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), the area of moderately suitable regions is projected to increase by 22.12–27.33% in the 2050 s and by 17.80–38.22% in the 2080 s compared to the current distribution, while the area of highly suitable regions shows a shrinking trend. This study provides data support for the management strategies of C. davidi and offers new insights into the dynamic changes of similar forestry pests.