James Halliday McDunnough

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18‐years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast).Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year−1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges.Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity.Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges.We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges.This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

The monarch butterfly is a flagship species and pollinator whose populations have declined by 85% in the recent two decades. Their largest population overwinters in Mexico, then disperses across eastern North America during March to August. During September-December, they return south using two flyways, one that spans the central United States and another that follows the Atlantic coast. Migrating monarchs fly diurnally and roost in groups nocturnally. We sought to determine the criteria this species uses to select roost sites, and the landscape context where those sites are found. We developed species distribution models of the landscape context of Atlantic flyway roost sites via citizen scientist observations and environmental variables that affect monarchs in the adult stage prior to migration, using two algorithms (Maximum Entropy and Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Prediction). We developed two model validation methods: a citizen scientist smartphone application and peer-informed comparisons with aerial imagery. Proximity to surface water, elevation, and vegetative cover were the most important criteria for monarch roost site selection. Our model predicted 2.6 million ha (2.9% of the study area) of suitable roosting habitat in the Atlantic flyway, with the greatest availability along the Atlantic coastal plain and Appalachian Mountain ridges. Conservation of this species is difficult, as monarchs range over both large areas and various habitat types, and most current monarch research and conservation efforts are focused on the breeding and overwintering periods. These models can serve to help prioritize surveys of roosting sites and conservation efforts during the monarchs’ fall migration.

Climate is a main driver of species distributions, but all species are not equally affected by climate change, and their differential responses to similar climatic constraints might dramatically affect the local species composition. In the context of climate warming, a better knowledge of the ability of dispersal-limited and habitat-specialist species to track climate change at local scale is urgently needed. Comparing the population genetic and demographic impacts of past climate cycles in multiple co-distributed species with similar ecological requirements help predicting the community-scale response to climate warming, but such comparative studies remain rare. Here, we studied the relationship between demographic history and past changes in spatial distribution of three protected peatland butterfly species (Boloria aquilonaris, Coenonympha tullia, Lycaena helle) in the Jura massif (France), using a genomic approach (ddRAD sequencing) and species distribution modeling (SDM). We found a similar and narrow thermal niche among species, and shared demographic histories of post-glacial decline and recent fragmentation of populations. Each species functions as a single metapopulation at the regional scale, with a North-South gradient of decreasing genetic diversity that fits the local dynamics of the ice cover over time. However, we found no correlation between changes in the quantity or the quality of suitable areas and changes in effective population size over time. This suggests that species ranges moved beyond the Jura massif during the less favorable climatic periods, and/or that habitat loss and deterioration are major drivers of the current dramatic decline observed in the three species. Our findings allow better understanding how history events and contemporary dynamics shape local biodiversity, providing valuable knowledge to identify appropriate conservation strategies.

Aim: Recent studies have found that local-scale plots measured through time exhibit marked variation in the change in species richness. However, the overall effect often reveals no net change. Most studies to date have been agnostic about the identities of the species lost/gained and about the proce…