John Otterbein Snyder

We assessed changes in fundamental climate‐niche space for lizard and snake species in western North America under modeled climate scenarios to inform natural resource managers of possible shifts in species distributions. We generated eight distribution models for each of 130 snake and lizard species in western North America under six time‐by‐climate scenarios. We combined the highest‐performing models per species into a single ensemble model for each scenario. Maps were generated from the ensemble models to depict climate‐niche space for each species and scenario. Patterns of species richness based on climate suitability and niche shifts were calculated from the projections at the scale of the entire study area and individual states and provinces, from Canada to Mexico. Squamate species' climate‐niche space for the recent‐time climate scenario and published known ranges were highly correlated (r = 0.81). Overall, reptile climate‐niche space was projected to move northward in the future. Sixty‐eight percent of species were projected to expand their current climate‐niche space rather than to shift, contract, or remain stable. Only 8.5% of species were projected to lose climate‐niche space in the future, and these species primarily occurred in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. We found few species were projected to lose all suitable climate‐niche space at the state or province level, although species were often predicted to occupy novel areas, such as at higher elevations. Most squamate species were projected to increase their climate‐niche space in future climate scenarios. As climate niches move northward, species are predicted to cross administrative borders, resulting in novel conservation issues for local landowners and natural resource agencies. However, information on species dispersal abilities, landscape connectivity, biophysical tolerances, and habitat suitability is needed to contextualize predictions relative to realized future niche expansions.

Objective In many Great Plains rivers, functional turnover—the change in proportional dominance of members in biological communities that fill certain ecological roles—has occurred due to impoundment and habitat alteration. The Powder River of Montana and Wyoming remains one of the few unregulated prairie rivers, but long‐term monitoring is limited, so we analyzed changes over time at the functional, assemblage, and species levels.MethodsWe used fish sampling data from 43 different sources collected from 1893 to 2022 to analyze trends in fish communities.ResultAcross the main‐stem Powder River, Sand Shiner Miniellus stramineus and Channel Catfish Ictalurus punctatus substantially increased in abundance, whereas Sturgeon Chub Macrhybopsis gelida decreased. While most other species did not show significant changes in relative abundance (although the always rare Lake Chub Couesius plumbeus may have been extirpated), significant functional turnover occurred in the upper river due to increases in generalist feeders, predators, omnivores, and cavity‐guarding species, with declines in benthic feeders, invertivores, and pelagic broadcast spawners, among others. Community and functional changes were more substantial in the upper river than in the lower river, possibly due to augmented streamflow from a major tributary.ConclusionFunctional turnover within the upper river was substantial despite the relative stability of most individual species, even when the Sand Shiner—the most significantly increasing species—was excluded from analysis. This suggests small but consistent increases and decreases within functional groups, which cumulatively are likely impacting the ecosystem. We hypothesize a complex set of mechanisms causing these changes that offer avenues for future work. The collation of data from disparate studies and the resampling of even a limited number of historical fish collection locations can greatly aid in identifying potential fish community changes in systems where monitoring is limited.

Conservation and management of drylands is a global challenge. Key attributes of these ecosystems, such as dominant vegetation including shrubs, can provide a crucial mechanism to inform conservation strategies. The shrub species Ephedra californica and Larrea tridentata are common native shrub species within the deserts of California and frequently benefit other plant and animal species. Here, we tested the hypothesis that shrubs support reptile and amphibian communities through relative increases in available habitat, estimated through increasing shrub densities at the site level. Reported occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and high-resolution satellite images were used to test for local-to-regional patterns in reptile and amphibian distribution and diversity by shrub densities at sites. At 43 distinct sites, the relationship between shrub density and reported reptile and amphibian communities was also tested. A total of 71 reptile and amphibian species were reported regionally. Increases in shrub density across sites positively influenced the relative abundance and richness of reptiles and amphibians observed. Moreover, increasing shrub density also had a positive influence on species evenness. Aridity differences between sites did not significantly influence the relationship between shrub density and reptiles and amphibians suggesting that the relationship was robust. This study highlights the importance of foundational shrub species in supporting reptile and amphibian communities in arid and semi-arid regions. Large-scale patterns of biodiversity in deserts can be supported by positive plant-animal interactions including small islands of fertility and resources for animals in the context of a warming climate.

Animals that frequently encounter toxins often develop mechanisms of toxin resistance over evolutionary time. Both predators that consume toxic prey and organisms in physical contact with a toxin in their environment may experience natural selection for resistance. Based on observations that Pacific Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris regilla) sometimes eat and mistakenly amplect tetrodotoxin (TTX)-defended Taricha newts, we predicted that P. regilla may possess TTX resistance. We compared amino acid sequences of domain IV of the muscle voltage-gated sodium channel gene SCN4A (NaV1.4) in populations of P. regilla that are sympatric and allopatric with Taricha. We identified a single substitution in NaV1.4 of P. regilla at a conserved site in the pore loop where TTX binds. Although the role of this site in TTX resistance has not been functionally assessed, both allopatric and sympatric P. regilla had this substitution, along with several other reptiles and amphibians, suggesting that it may be unrelated to TTX exposure from Taricha. Thus, there is no conclusive evidence that P. regilla possesses TTX resistance encoded by amino acid substitutions in this domain. California occurrence data from the last 50 yr indicate that Taricha activity peaks in January while the activity of P. regilla peaks in April, with times where the species may come into contact. However, P. regilla may not be exposed to levels of TTX from Taricha high enough to select for mutations in NaV1.4. Other unidentified mechanisms of TTX resistance could be present in P. regilla and other species sympatric with toxic newts.

Freshwater biodiversity is declining faster than terrestrial and marine biodiversity. The protection and restoration of aquatic habitats are based, in part, on stemming this decline. We conducted a spatial conservation assessment of native fishes in the Lahontan and central Nevada basins using core-area zonation. The complementarity-based assessment yielded a landscape value (rank) of all subwatersheds (12-digit hydrologic unit code; ~12,000 ha) whereby high-ranking subwatersheds, as a set, maximized the representation of all native species, subspecies, and the within-species ecological diversity of salmonids, while accounting for aquatic connectivity and risk of aquatic habitat degradation. The high-ranking subwatersheds encapsulated small patches of habitat inhabited by endemic desert fishes, as in the Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge. They also highlighted clusters of high-value subwatersheds, such as in the Truckee River watershed that has extant populations of, and historical habitat for, Lahontan cutthroat trout in its headwaters, with species such as the mountain whitefish with migratory life histories, and endemic cui-ui, Chasmistes cujus, at Pyramid Lake—a terminal lake. Both the Truckee River headwaters and Pyramid Lake have been recipients of ongoing native fish conservation efforts. The landscape rankings will be used by the Desert Fish Habitat Partnership to inform regional conservation investments, and the rankings are available for broader use by resource agencies working on native fish conservation at landscape scales.

Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km2 across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid‐century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest.

An important driver behind introductions for aquaculture of alien fish species into Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) is a lack of knowledge about domestication suitability and specific culture requirements of indigenous taxa. Introductions may be appropriate in some circumstances, but in other circumstances, the associated risks may outweigh the benefits, so greater understanding of indigenous species' aquaculture potential is important. This review summarises literature for indigenous freshwater food fish species from Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Samoa and Tonga, and evaluates their aquaculture potential for food security and/or small‐scale livelihoods. A species selection criteria incorporating economic, social, biological and environmental spheres was used to score 62 candidate species. Tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus and O. niloticus) now established in PICTs were evaluated for comparison. Results show that 13 species belonging to the families Mugilidae (Mullets), Terapontidae (Grunters), Kuhliidae (Flagtails) and Scatophagidae (Scats) have the highest culture potential according to selection criteria. These feed at a relatively low trophic level (are herbivores/detritivores), have comparatively fast growth rates and overall possess characteristics most amenable for small‐scale, inland aquaculture. The four top‐ranked candidates are all mountain mullets Cestraeus spp., followed by Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Lower ranked candidates include three other mullets (Planiliza melinoptera, P. subviridis and Mugil cephalus) and rock flagtail Kuhlia rupestris. Importantly, many species remain data deficient in aspects of their reproductive biology or culture performance. Species profiles and ranked priority species by country are provided with logistical, technological and environmental assessments of country capacities to culture each species.

Mariculture has been one of the fastest-growing global food production sectors over the past three decades. With the congestion of space and deterioration of the environment in coastal regions, offshore aquaculture has gained increasing attention. Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) are two important aquaculture species and contribute to 6.1% of world aquaculture production of finfish. In the present study, we established species distribution models (SDMs) to identify the potential areas for offshore aquaculture of these two cold-water fish species considering the mesoscale spatio-temporal thermal heterogeneity of the Yellow Sea. The values of the area under the curve (AUC) and the true skill statistic (TSS) showed good model performance. The suitability index (SI), which was used in this study to quantitatively assess potential offshore aquaculture sites, was highly dynamic at the surface water layer. However, high SI values occurred throughout the year at deeper water layers. The potential aquaculture areas for S. salar and O. mykiss in the Yellow Sea were estimated as 52,270 ± 3275 (95% confidence interval, CI) and 146,831 ± 15,023 km 2 , respectively. Our results highlighted the use of SDMs in identifying potential aquaculture areas based on environmental variables. Considering the thermal heterogeneity of the environment, this study suggested that offshore aquaculture for Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout was feasible in the Yellow Sea by adopting new technologies (e.g., sinking cages into deep water) to avoid damage from high temperatures in summer.

Four anguillid eel species occur in the western Indian Ocean rivers of Africa: Anguilla bengalensis, Anguilla bicolor, Anguilla marmorata and Anguilla mossambica. These catadromous fishes face multiple stressors, including habitat alteration and deterioration, barriers to migration, pollution and the adverse impacts of alien species, but knowledge of eel species occurrence, abundance and ecology in Africa remains poor.This study investigated the present and historical distribution of anguillid eels and the potential associated drivers of declines at the southern extremities of their ranges in South Africa. Data analysed included sampling conducted in KwaZulu–Natal and Eastern Cape between 2015 and 2020, and secondary data extracted from databases, museums and local management agencies.The median extent of inland penetration increased as follows: 22 km for A. bicolor, 29 km for A. marmorata, 94 km for A. bengalensis and 293 km for A. mossambica. The median altitude followed a similar pattern.Extent of occurrence analyses were carried out at the regional level in KwaZulu–Natal. The sampling data on present distribution (2015–2020), compared with historical data, suggests declines in the extents of occurrence of the four eel species in KwaZulu–Natal, ranging between 31 and 48% in the last 30 years and between 35 and 82% since the 1950s.With increasing human threats in the region, especially from watercourse modification and water abstraction, further declines for these species are expected. Conservation measures recommended include the maintenance or restoration of the ecological connectivity of important rivers and the implementation of freshwater protected areas. Although eels are at present not widely exploited in South Africa, there is a need for fisheries regulations to manage sustainable commercial exploitation.

For over a century, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) has been widely introduced into lakes and rivers in South Africa to create and enhance sport‐fishing opportunities. Despite its long history of introduction, naturalized populations of rainbow trout are still localized to a few areas with suitable habitats and climate. This study assessed the spread debt (i.e., the increase in area invaded by invasive species over time) of rainbow trout in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa to highlight areas with known introductions, the extent of the invasion, and to identify areas that are suitable for establishment but are still invasion‐free. The total river length that was predicted as suitable for rainbow trout under current climate was about ca. 3,500 km in an extension of about ca. 15,000 km. Current occupancy (river length predicted as suitable with known rainbow trout occurrence records) was ca. 1,220 km (35%) and the invasion debt was therefore estimated as 65%. While these data infer a large invasion debt, they are confounded by a lack of knowledge on sampling effort and verified true absence and should therefore be recognized as an estimate. In addition, the extent of the suitable area varied under different climate change scenarios where it was projected to decrease under RCP 4.5 scenarios and increase under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. This study demonstrates some of the difficulties of quantifying the potential future extent and impacts of biological invasions and how the invasion debt concept can be applied to provide an important link between invasion biology, management, and policy.