Pierre Julien Cavalerie

Amphibian declines, driven by climate change (e.g., shifting temperatures, altered precipitation) and human activities like deforestation, agriculture, and urbanization, may lead to local extinctions. Quantifying the relative impact of climate change versus human influence remains challenging. This study uses species distribution models (SDMs) and nearly 1000 years of historical distribution data from ancient texts and local archives to reconstruct the past distribution range of the Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus) and to assess the spatiotemporal shifts in its range over time. The results reveal that over the past millennium, the potential distribution range of the Chinese giant salamander consistently contracted, decreasing by 10% from the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) to the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) and a further 30% from the Qing Dynasty to the modern era. Losses are concentrated in eastern plains with abundant water bodies, resulting in available habitat reduction to 27% of the Qing Dynasty's area. Climate factors have been key in shaping the salamander's distribution, but our findings reveal that population density has consistently impacted its range throughout history, highlighting the lasting influence of human activity. Climate models project a about 10% decrease in suitable habitat by around 2090, with northward shifts in suitable habitat. Given the urgent threat of habitat loss and environmental degradation, immediate and effective actions are crucial to prevent the local extinction of the Chinese giant salamander, including habitat protection, environmental restoration, and strict regulations against hunting and habitat destruction. This study, analyzing the Chinese giant salamander's suitable habitat historically, identifies human activities as a pivotal force in early amphibian species decline in China, contributing valuable perspectives to future amphibian conservation and management.

Abstract Climate change impacts the distribution of pests and its natural enemies, prompting this study to investigate the dynamics and shifts in distribution under current and future climate conditions. The spatial pattern of Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China was analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was optimized to predict the potential geographic distribution of P. hilaris and its two natural enemies (Dastarcus helophoroides (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae) and Dendrocopos major (Linnaeus) (Piciformes: Picidae)) in China, to further analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival of P. hilaris and its natural enemies, and to determine the potential of using D. helophoroides and D. major as natural enemies to control P. hilaris. The results showed that the suitable ranges of P. hilaris and natural enemies are expanding under the influence of climate change, and both have migrated to higher latitudes. The potential ranges of D. helophoroides, D. major, and P. hilaris are highly similar. It is noteworthy that the potential range of D. helophoroides completely covers the potential range of P. hilaris. This indicates that D. helophoroides and D. major can be employed as biological control agents to manage P. hilaris populations. This study provides a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for the development of early warning and green control strategies for P. hilaris.

ABSTRACTAimFerns are globally distributed, yet the number of studies examining the historical evolution of African taxa is relatively low. Investigation of the evolution of African fern diversity is critical in order to understand patterns and processes that have global relevance (e.g., the pantropical diversity disparity [PDD] pattern). This study aims to examine when and from where a globally distributed fern lineage arrived in sub‐Saharan Africa, to obtain a better understanding of potential processes contributing to patterns of diversity across the region.LocationGlobal, sub‐Saharan Africa.TaxonAsplenium (Aspleniaceae).MethodsWe analysed five loci from 537 Asplenium taxa using a maximum likelihood (IQ‐Tree) phylogenetic framework. For age estimation, we performed penalised likelihood as implemented in treePL, and executed a Bayesian analysis using BEAST. Biogeographical analyses were carried out using BioGeoBEARS.ResultsMost dispersals into Africa occurred within the last ~55 myr, with the highest diversity of sub‐Saharan African taxa concentrated in two clades, each of which descended from an Asian ancestor. Additional dispersals to sub‐Saharan Africa can be found throughout the phylogeny. Lastly, potential cryptic species diversity exists within Asplenium as evidenced by several polyphyletic taxa.Main ConclusionsWe recover multiple dispersals of Asplenium to sub‐Saharan Africa, with two major lineages likely diversifying after arrival.

Present-day geographic and phylogenetic patterns often reflect the geological and climatic history of the planet. Neontological distribution data are often sufficient to unravel a lineage’s biogeographic history, yet ancestral range inferences can be at odds with fossil evidence. Here, I use the fossilized birth–death process and the dispersal–extinction cladogenesis model to jointly infer the dated phylogeny and range evolution of the tree fern order Cyatheales. I use data for 101 fossil and 442 extant tree ferns to reconstruct the biogeographic history of the group over the last 220 million years. Fossil-aware reconstructions evince a prolonged occupancy of Laurasia over the Triassic–Cretaceous by Cyathealean tree ferns, which is evident in the fossil record but hidden from analyses relying on neontological data alone. Nonetheless, fossil-aware reconstructions are affected by uncertainty in fossils’ phylogenetic placement, taphonomic biases, and specimen sampling and are sensitive to interpretation of paleodistributions and how these are scored. The present results highlight the need and challenges of incorporating fossils into joint inferences of phylogeny and biogeography to improve the reliability of ancestral geographic range estimation.

Paleoclimate reconstructions can provide a window into the environmental conditions in Earth history when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than today. In the eastern USA, paleoclimate reconstructions are sparse, because terrestrial sedimentary deposits are rare. Despite this, the eastern USA has the largest population and population density in North America, and understanding the effects of current and future climate change is of vital importance. Here, we provide terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions of the eastern USA from Miocene fossil floras. Additionally, we compare proxy paleoclimate reconstructions from the warmest period in the Miocene, the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), to those of an MCO Earth System Model. Reconstructed Miocene temperatures and precipitation north of 35°N are higher than modern. In contrast, south of 35°N, temperatures and precipitation are similar to today, suggesting a poleward amplification effect in eastern North America. Reconstructed Miocene rainfall seasonality was predominantly higher than modern, regardless of latitude, indicating greater variability in intra-annual moisture transport. Reconstructed climates are almost uniformly in the temperate seasonal forest biome, but heterogeneity of specific forest types is evident. Reconstructed Miocene terrestrial temperatures from the eastern USA are lower than modeled temperatures and coeval Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, reconstructed rainfall is consistent with modeled rainfall. Our results show that during the Miocene, climate was most different from modern in the northeastern states, and may suggest a drastic reduction in the meridional temperature gradient along the North American east coast compared to today.

Identifying climatic refugia is important for long-term conservation planning under climate change. Riparian areas have the potential to provide climatic refugia for wildlife, but literature remains limited, especially for plants. This study was conducted with the purpose of identifying climatic refugia of plant biodiversity in the portion of the Mekong River Basin located in Xishuangbanna, China. We first predicted the current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential distribution of 50 threatened woody species in Xishuangbanna by using an ensemble of small models, then stacked the predictions for individual species to derive spatial biodiversity patterns within each 10 × 10 km grid cell. We then identified the top 17 % of the areas for spatial biodiversity patterns as biodiversity hotspots, with climatic refugia defined as areas that remained as biodiversity hotspots over time. Stepwise regression and linear correlation were applied to analyze the environmental correlations with spatial biodiversity patterns and the relationships between climatic refugia and river distribution, respectively. Our results showed potential upward and northward shifts in threatened woody species, with range contractions and expansions predicted. The spatial biodiversity patterns shift from southeast to northwest, and were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and elevation heterogeneity. Climatic refugia under climate change were related closely to river distribution in Xishuangbanna, with riparian areas identified that could provide climatic refugia. These refugial zones are recommended as priority conservation areas for mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Our study confirmed that riparian areas could act as climatic refugia for plants and emphasizes the conservation prioritization of riparian areas within river basins for protecting biodiversity under climate change.

The Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis, is a forestry pest found worldwide. A. glabripennis causes serious harm because of the lack of natural enemies in the invaded areas. Dastarcus helophoroides and Dendrocopos major are important natural enemies of A. glabripennis. MaxEnt was used to simulate the distribution of D. helophoroides and D. major in China, and their suitable areas were superimposed to pinpoint which regions are potentially appropriate to release or establish natural enemy populations under current and future conditions. The results showed that, with climate change, the suitable areas of D. helophoroides and D. major migrated northward; the centroid shift of A. glabripennis was greater than those of D. helophoroides and D. major. From current conditions to 2090, the suitable area of A. glabripennis, D. helophoroides, and D. major will increase by 1.44 × 104, 20.10 × 104, and 31.64 × 104 km2, respectively. Northern China (e.g., Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia), where A. glabripennis causes more serious damage, is also a potentially suitable area for D. helophoroides and D. major, and this provides a potential strategy for the management of A. glabripennis. Therefore, we suggest that natural enemies should be included in the model used for predicting suitable areas for invasive pests.

Mounting observational records demonstrate human‐caused faunal decline in recent decades, while accumulating archaeological evidence suggests an early biodiversity impact of human activities during the Holocene. A fundamental question arises concerning whether modern wildlife population declines began during early human disturbance. Here, we performed population genomic analysis of six common forest birds in East Asia to address this question. For five of them, demographic history inference based on 25‐33 genomes of each species revealed dramatic population declines by 4‐48‐fold over millennia (e.g., two to five thousand years ago). Nevertheless, Summary statistics detected nonsignificant correlations between these population size trajectories and Holocene temperature variations, and ecological niche models explicitly predicted extensive range persistence during the Holocene, implying limited demographic consequence of Holocene climate change. Further analyses suggest high negative correlations between the reconstructed population declines and human disturbance intensities and indicate a potential driver of human activities. These findings provide a deep‐time and large‐scale insight into the recently recognized avifaunal decline and support an early origin hypothesis of human effects on biodiversity. Overall, our study sheds light on the current biodiversity crisis in the context of long‐term human‐environment interactions and offers a multievidential framework for quantitatively assessing the ecological consequences of human disturbance.

The early Eocene (∼56‐48 million years ago) is characterised by high CO2 estimates (1200‐2500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10 to 16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g. Africa). Here we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in the Deep‐time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre‐industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model‐ and geographically dependent, however these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre‐industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low‐level circulation is replaced by increased south‐westerly flow at high CO2 levels. Lastly, a model‐data comparison using newly‐compiled quantitative climate estimates from palaeobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO2.

During the early to middle Eocene, a mid‐to‐high latitudinal position and enhanced hydrological cycle in Australia would have contributed to a wetter and “greener” Australian continent where today arid to semi‐arid climates dominate. Here, we revisit 12 southern Australian plant megafossil sites from the early to middle Eocene to generate temperature, precipitation and seasonality paleoclimate estimates, net primary productivity (NPP) and vegetation type, based on paleobotanical proxies and compare to early Eocene global climate models. Temperature reconstructions are uniformly subtropical (mean annual, summer, and winter mean temperatures 19–21 °C, 25–27 °C and 14–16 °C, respectively), indicating that southern Australia was ∼5 °C warmer than today, despite a >20° poleward shift from its modern geographic location. Precipitation was less homogeneous than temperature, with mean annual precipitation of ∼60 cm over inland sites and >100 cm over coastal sites. Precipitation may have been seasonal with the driest month receiving 2–7× less than mean monthly precipitation. Proxy‐model comparison is favorable with an 1680 ppm CO2 concentration. However, individual proxy reconstructions can disagree with models as well as with each other. In particular, seasonality reconstructions have systemic offsets. NPP estimates were higher than modern, implying a more homogenously “green” southern Australia in the early to middle Eocene, when this part of Australia was at 48–64 °S, and larger carbon fluxes to and from the Australian biosphere. The most similar modern vegetation type is modern‐day eastern Australian subtropical forest, although distance from coast and latitude may have led to vegetation heterogeneity.