Daniel Solander

Context Mapping the distribution of species from the genus Metrosideros is crucial for developing surveillance and management plans associated with species conservation in response to issues such as rapid ‘ōhi‘a death spread in the south-central Pacific region. Aims To support this endeavour, we recognised there was a need for open and reliable geographic information system data on island locations, extents, and occurrence data of Metrosideros species. Methods Using an open science framework, we reviewed six sources of island data and five sources of species occurrence data for availability, accuracy, and licencing criteria. Key results OpenStreetMap emerged as the optimal island location data, offering accuracy, precision, and open licencing, with this data improved and reprojected for mapping purposes. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided the majority of Metrosideros species occurrence data, but analysis of occurrence data from iNaturalist revealed common mis-identifications with regional biases that were corrected prior to compilation. The occurrence data of Metrosideros species was also supplemented by vegetation plot data, with HAVPlot and sPlotOpen providing key additional data for some species and islands. Conclusions Citizen science data via iNaturalist and OpenStreetMap formed the core of the compiled datasets. While such crowdsourced data can have quality issues, with additional crowdsourced curatorial effort these datasets will be significant and scalable sources of data into the future. Implications All compiled occurrence and GIS data are made openly available via permissive data licences to better support future biogeographical research in the south-central Pacific region.

The Southern Islands Vascular Flora (SIVFLORA) dataset is a globally significant, open-access resource that compiles essential biodiversity data on vascular plants from islands across the Southern Ocean. The SIVFLORA dataset was generated through five steps: study area delimitation, compiling the dataset, validating and harmonizing taxonomy, structuring dataset attributes, and establishing file format and open access. Covering major taxonomic divisions, SIVFLORA offers a comprehensive overview of plant occurrences, comprising 14,589 records representing 886 species, 95 families, and 42 orders. This dataset documents that 58.62% of the taxa are native, 9.61% are endemic, and 31.77% are alien species. The Falkland/Malvinas Archipelago, the most species-rich, contrast sharply with less diverse islands like the South Orkney Archipelago. SIVFLORA serves as a taxonomically harmonized, interoperable resource for investigating plant diversity patterns, ecosystem responses to climate change in extreme environments, island biogeography, endemism, and the effects of anthropogenic pressures on Southern Ocean flora.

The Arecaceae family (palms) holds global significance for its economic and ecological roles. Borneo is known as a center of endemic plant species but faces threats from human activities, including those affecting palms. This study aims to update the distribution and conservation status of endemic Bornean palms, identify potential conservation priority areas, and conduct a gap analysis to inform conservation strategies. The methodology involved comprehensive data collection, along with spatial and statistical analysis for conservation assessment and prioritization. Despite challenges like limited data on palm distribution in Indonesia, the study provides critical insights for developing targeted conservation strategies, particularly for conservation priority areas outside protected areas. The study identified 210 endemic Bornean palms, including 16 genera and 111 local endemics, with Malaysia exhibiting the highest species richness. Preliminary global assessment categorized 147 species as threatened palms, with 51 Critically Endangered (CR), 65 Endangered (EN), and 31 Vulnerable (VU). Meanwhile, 63 species were recognized as Least Concern (LC) and Near Threatened (NT). Furthermore, we conducted a hotspot analysis to identify key areas for conservation efforts. This analysis identified 32 grids (covering 12,378.93 km2), representing 10 % of the total identified Conservation Priority Areas (CPA), and 45 grids (covering 104,257.3 km2), representing 20 %. The larger area encompassed by the 20 % CPA highlights broader landscape-level priorities, emphasizing the importance of scaling conservation efforts to address habitat connectivity and ecological resilience. These areas spanned all regions, but a higher percentage was found in Malaysia at 10 % and 20 % sensitivity levels. These findings provide important guidance for targeted conservation actions and support further discussions on the future conservation of endemic Bornean palms.

Accessing the rich biodiversity in tropical ecosystems has been of great interest to scientists across the globe. While several species have been underutilized despite their wide distribution, many others are faced with continuous population decline across their native range. Here, we amassed occurrence data and environmental variables to estimate the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of six important Pelargonium species whose conservation status in South Africa has been of concern. These were combined and used to project the future habitats under 2 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 Scenarios (RCP 4.5 & 8.5). We overlayed our area maps and conducted a gap analysis to identify priority areas for the conservation of our focal species. Results showed a distribution pattern driven by temperature and precipitation, and unstable suitable areas by the years 2050 and 2070. Five temperature and precipitation variables (Bio2, Bio4, Bio12, Bio14, and Bio18) were identified as primary contributors to the habitat suitability of the selected Pelargonium species. Our model evaluation demonstrated a strong performance, with an AUC score >0.8, providing robust support for its replicability in monitoring the spatial distribution of other related taxa. We identified key areas for conservation activities in a bid to expand the current known habitats of the species in focus. While we leveraged SDM approach for explaining the area of occupancy and the spatial extent of Pelargonium species across in South Africa, we posit that attention should be drawn to the preservation of the remaining populations of the species and their associated habitats, towards mitigating their extinction.

Colocasia esculenta (taro), native to tropical Southeast Asia, is an emergent aquatic plant with a wide global distribution. Valued for its agricultural, horticultural, medicinal, and cultural uses, it also has become invasive in some places, spreading unaided along slow-flowing water courses through corm division. Colocasia esculenta was introduced to South Africa at least a century ago (∼ 1918), but widespread invasions are recent, raising concerns that the species could become a harmful invader in the country. This study reviews the history of introduction, invasions, and impacts of C. esculenta around the world; maps its current and potential distribution in South Africa; and, based on a risk analysis, develops recommendations for its management and regulation. Colocasia esculenta has been introduced to at least 180 territories (countries or island states), with records of invasion from 21 of these (9 island and 12 mainland territories). The negative environmental impacts were scored as ‘Moderate’ with the formation of dense mats leading to declines in local native populations; and socioeconomic impacts scored as ‘Minor’ as it has irritant properties if not properly handled and prepared. In South Africa, C. esculenta is found in six provinces but most extensively in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Based on a species distribution model, C. esculenta could substantially expand its range in areas where it is already established. Colocasia esculenta was classified as ‘high risk’ for South Africa, with high socio-economic benefits, and as such is identified as a potential conflict generating species. We recommend it is regulated as category 2 (permits are required to carry out any restricted activity) under the South African regulations and suggest exemptions on subsistence farming but prohibitions on all farming in riparian zones. Further investigation is needed for potential management options, including biological control. Recommendations should be reviewed after determining whether some of the subspecific entities present in the country pose a low risk, as then further exemptions or prohibitions might be appropriate.

In this work, the 25 species of the flea beetle genus Calotheca Heyden recorded for South Africa are considered. Starting from the updated species distribution and the topographic, temperature, and precipitation variables, as well as the vegetation types in the occurrence sites, through an analysis of ecological niche modelling, a possible ecological profile is provided, both for each species and the entire genus, highlighting some of the factors that drive their occurrence and distribution patterns. Along with the vegetation type, some climatic variables were found to be particularly influential, such as the mean temperature of both the wettest and driest quarters and also the mean precipitation of the wettest period. Finally, comparing the distribution of the areas of highest suitability returned by the model obtained for Calotheca, they largely overlap with the highest-density areas of Searsia, genus of Anacardiaceae, including the main host plants for these flea beetles.

Some plant lineages remain within the same biome over time (biome conservatism), whereas others seem to adapt more easily to new biomes. The c. 398 species (14 genera) of subfamily Cercidoideae (Leguminosae or Fabaceae) are found in many biomes around the world, particularly in the tropical regions of South America, Asia and Africa, and display a variety of growth forms (small trees, shrubs, lianas and herbaceous perennials). Species distribution maps derived from cleaned occurrence records were compiled and compared with existing biome maps and with the literature to assign species to biomes. Rainforest (144 species), succulent (44 species), savanna (36 species), and temperate (10 species) biomes were found to be important in describing the global distribution of Cercidoideae, with many species occurring in more than one biome. Two phylogenetically isolated species-poor temperate ( Cercis ) and succulent ( Adenolobus ) biome lineages are sister to two broadly distributed species-rich tropical clades. Ancestral state reconstructions on a time-calibrated phylogeny suggest biome shifts occurred throughout the evolutionary history of the subfamily, with shifts between the succulent and rainforest biomes, from the rainforest to savanna, from the succulent to savanna biome, and one early occurring shift into (or from) the temperate biome. Of the 26 inferred shifts in biome, three are closely associated with a shift from the ancestral tree/shrub growth form to a liana or herbaceous perennial habit. Only three of the 13 inferred transcontinental dispersal events are associated with biome shifts. Overall, we find that biome shifts tend to occur within the same continent and that dispersals to new continents tend to occur within the same biome, but that nonetheless the biome-conserved and biogeographically structured Cercidoideae have been able to adapt to different environments through time.

Invasive sandburs (Cenchrus spp.), tropical and subtropical plants, are preferred in grasslands and agricultural ecosystems worldwide, causing significant crop production losses and reducing native biodiversity. Integrating phylogenetic relatedness and potentially suitable habitats (PSHs) to identify areas at risk of invasion is critical for prioritizing management efforts and supporting decisions on early warning and surveillance for sandbur invasions. However, despite risk assessments for individual Cenchrus species, the combined analysis of suitable habitats and phylogenetic relationships remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to assess the invasion risk regions—including PSHs, species richness (SR), and phylogenetic structure—of eight invasive and potentially invasive sandburs in China, to quantify their niche overlap and identify driving factors. Our results showed that the phylogenetic distance of potentially invasive sandburs was closely related to invasive sandburs. Especially, three potentially invasive sandburs, C. ciliaris, C. setigerus, and C. myosuroides, possessed invasion potential resulting from close phylogenetic relatedness and high climatic suitability compared with invasive sandburs. The PSHs for invasive sandburs were distributed in wider regions except northwest China and had higher suitability to different environmental conditions. Potentially invasive sandburs were primarily located in southwestern and southern China driven by precipitation, especially, being inspected in Guangdong, Hainan, and Yunnan on numerous occasions, or potentially introduced in Guangxi, Taiwan, and Fujian for sandburs invasion hotspots. The phylogenetic clustering for eight sandburs occurred in the eastern, center, and southern coastal China, where higher SR in distribution was correlated with invasion hotspots. The SR and phylogenetic relatedness metrics were related to temperature and topographic variables. Totally, the expansion and invasion risk could be increased toward higher latitudes under future global warming. These findings offer novel insights for the prevention and management of sandburs invasions.

Climate change is the main cause of global biodiversity loss and changes in the structure of ecological communities. Species distribution models are an efficient tool for predicting suitable areas for species and their vulnerability to climate change. In this study, we evaluated the impact of precipitation and temperature (factors of climate change) on 12 species of the Cyperaceae family, classified into three groups: aquatic, amphibian, and terrestrial. Our results provide a comprehensive overview of habitat projections for aquatic, amphibian and terrestrial Cyperaceae species in the Amazon biome under current and future scenarios. We highlight significant range losses projected for species such as Scleria amazonica and Cyperus lacustris in the future. The relationship between climate and its influence on species distribution is critical, emphasizing the urgent need to conserve biodiversity in the face of climate change. In the models, protected areas were essential refuges for species under threat, highlighting their crucial role in preventing biodiversity loss. Variables such as temperature and seasonality (rainfall variability) strongly influenced the distribution patterns of Cyperaceae species. Seasonal fluctuations such as extreme droughts can influence water availability and the growth dynamics of hydrophytic plants. Amphibian species adapt to temperature fluctuations and changes in precipitation, while terrestrial plants prefer warmer and rainy regions. Our results emphasize the importance of conservation strategies for Amazonian species. We have also shown that protected areas play an essential role in conserving biodiversity and protecting Cyperaceae species from future changes.

Abstract The Neotropics have been host to a myriad of geological and climatic events that have shaped the biodiversity present in the region. Bromeliaceae forms one of the most prominent components of the Neotropical flora, being considered the largest group nearly exclusive to the Americas, with almost 4000 species divided into eight subfamilies. Here, we utilize a new time-calibrated molecular phylogeny including 1268 bromeliad taxa and integrate habitat and morphological data to answer the following questions: (i) Are bromeliad subfamilies monophyletic, and did Neogene and Quaternary events in South America coincide with their divergence? (ii) Did naked seeds of berry-fruited species, epiphytic growth, and climatic factors increase bromeliad diversification? Our analysis reconstructed a new topology concerning some recently diverged lineages, with the genus Bromelia emerging as the sister group of a clade including all remaining Bromelioideae lineages + Puyoideae. Miocene events possibly triggered the diversification of bromeliads after a long period of stasis during the Palaeogene. We hypothesize that the morphological shift between Bromelia and Bromelioideae (except Bromelia) is related to the colonization of a new high-elevation environment by Puyoideae in the Andes. Additionally, our results show that naked seeds and the epiphytic growth form positively influence diversification rate, while precipitation, temperature, and elevation have a negative influence. We emphasize the importance of considering a variety of morphological and ecological features to enhance our understanding of bromeliad evolution.