Gladwyn Kingsley Noble

Male frogs emit stereotypical advertisement calls to attract mates and deter conspecific rivals. The evolution of these calls is thought to be linked to anatomical constraints and the acoustic characteristics of their surroundings. The acoustic adaptation hypothesis (AAH) posits that species evolve calls that maximize propagation distance and reduce signal degradation in the environment where they are emitted. We applied phylogenetic comparative analyses to study the association of body size, vegetation density, type of aquatic ecosystem, and calling site on the evolution of acoustic traits in Cophomantini, a large radiation of Neotropical treefrogs (Hylidae). We obtained and analyzed body size, acoustic, and habitat data from a total of 112 species (58% of Cophomantini), using the most inclusive available phylogeny. We found a significant negative correlation between peak frequency, body size, and calling site, but contrary to the predictions of the AAH, we did not find support for associations among call traits and environmental characteristics. Although spectral allometry is explained by an anatomical constraint, it could also be maintained by female choice. We recommend that future studies strive to incorporate factors such as female mate preferences, eavesdropping by predators or parasites, and genetic drift.

Molossus molossus is a widely distributed neotropical bat species in the Americas, often found in urban areas. This study evaluated climate change effects on the potential geographic distribution of M. molossus, a natural host of zoonotic pathogens such as Orthohantavirus, in the Neotropical region. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM), models were generated for current (1970–2000) and future (2070) climate scenarios based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) and two Global Circulation Models (MPI-ESM1–2-LR and IPSL-CM6A-LR). Results indicated that in the current scenario, warm and coastal areas of the Neotropics are suitable for M. molossus occurrence. Risk areas for Orthohantavirus transmission were mapped by overlapping the probability of urban expansion with projections of climatic suitability for the bat. For both future scenarios (2070), projections indicate an expansion of suitable climatic areas for M. molossus over urban expansion zones, specifically in Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, Mexico, the United States, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. However, projections also indicate the Lesser Antilles under climate threat, considering that no climatic suitability areas will remain. These findings provide important information for planning surveillance and mitigation actions for zoonotic risks associated with M. molossus, considering climate change impacts on its geographic distribution in the Neotropical region.

Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we evaluated the climate change risk to 11 ES provided by Brazilian terrestrial mammals by mapping their potential distribution using ecological niche modeling. We assessed risk by estimating species richness (for each ES) and ES richness (for ES overlapped) under current and future conditions. Although most of the species are projected to experience distribution contractions, overall, the individual ES and their overlap are expected to be less at risk from climate change (i.e., gain in redundancy of providers or area of supply). The Amazon emerges as a hotspot for ES supply by mammals, showing the greatest redundancy and, in some cases, expansion of ES supply. Because ES are benefits to people, and the Amazon is the least populated region in Brazil, this surplus might not translate into actual service. Conversely, the densely populated Atlantic Forest, and the agriculturally productive southern of Cerrado, and Pantanal are expected to lose ES in the future. We emphasize the importance of identifying and mapping ES providers to inform decision-making and policy formulation and guide strategies to deal with climate change and other stressors such as land-use changes. Overall, there is an urgent need for conservation and restoration efforts, particularly in densely populated regions at risk of losing provider species and their ES, such as in the Atlantic Forest. Also, further research is crucial for the Caatinga and Pampa regions, where knowledge gaps were identified.

Abstract Beavers have occurred in North America since at least 7 Ma, but relatively little is known about their distribution across the continent. We modeled distributions of beavers in the late Pliocene (3.3 Ma), Pleistocene (130 ka and 21 ka), and recent Holocene (1970 to 2000) to understand their dispersal across North America, predict future distributions and predict their possible response to future climate and habitat changes. Occurrence data for Castor canadensis were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Those data were used with both modern (1970 to 2000) and modeled future (EC-Earth-Veg 2081 to 2100) bioclimatic variables from WorldClim as well as past (Pliocene Marine Isotope Stage M2, Pleistocene Last Interglacial, and Pleistocene Last Glacial Maximum) bioclimatic variables from PaleoClim to model beaver distributions through time. Fossil locality points for Castor extracted from the New and Old Worlds Database of Fossil Mammals (NOW), NEOTOMA Paleoecology Database, and Paleobiology Database were overlain on past projection models to use as validation points. Models were run using MaxEnt with post-processing in ArcGIS. Accuracy for the 5 models ranged between 59.6% and 60.2%. Results for the present model (1970 to 2000) showed habitat suitability in areas beavers inhabit today. During the Pliocene MIS M2 cooling event (3.3 Ma) and Pleistocene Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), habitat suitability shifted further south into Mexico and peninsular Florida and away from more periglacial northern regions. During the Last Interglacial period (130 ka) and modeled future (2081 to 2100) EC-Earth-Veg 2081 to 2100, habitat suitability was higher in coastal and central regions in North America and lower in southern regions compared to their present distribution. Distributions were most affected by precipitation seasonality, isothermality, and mean annual temperature. High variability in seasonal precipitation and temperatures is likely to influence surface water availability, vegetation type, and riparian vegetation composition, which consequently may reduce available food resources and habitat for beavers. Observed shifts during warmer periods may indicate areas in the late Miocene that facilitated dispersal into North America. Future models using other predicted climatic scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways may provide better resolution of potential future shifts in beaver distribution with best- and worst-case climate scenarios, thereby permitting at-risk areas to be prioritized for conservation in the face of climate change.

Island ecosystems have significant conservation value owing to their higher endemic biotas. Moreover, studies of regional communities that compare differences in species composition (species dissimilarity) among islands and the mainland suggest that community assembly on islands is different from that on the mainland. However, the uniqueness of island biotic assembly has been little studied at the global scale, nor have phylogenetic information or alien species been considered in these patterns. We evaluate taxonomic and phylogenetic change from one community to the next, focusing on differences in species composition between mainland-mainland (M-M) pairs compared to differences between mainland-island pairs (M-I) and between island-island pairs (I-I), using herpetofauna on islands and adjacent mainland areas worldwide. Our analyses detect greater taxonomic and phylogenetic dissimilarity for M-I and I-I comparisons than predicted by M-M model, indicating different island herpetofauna assembly patterns compared with mainland counterparts across the world. However, this higher M-I dissimilarity has been significantly decreased after considering alien species. Our results provide global evidence on the importance of island biodiversity conservation from the aspect of both the taxonomic and phylogenetic uniqueness of island biotic assembly.

We assessed changes in fundamental climate‐niche space for lizard and snake species in western North America under modeled climate scenarios to inform natural resource managers of possible shifts in species distributions. We generated eight distribution models for each of 130 snake and lizard species in western North America under six time‐by‐climate scenarios. We combined the highest‐performing models per species into a single ensemble model for each scenario. Maps were generated from the ensemble models to depict climate‐niche space for each species and scenario. Patterns of species richness based on climate suitability and niche shifts were calculated from the projections at the scale of the entire study area and individual states and provinces, from Canada to Mexico. Squamate species' climate‐niche space for the recent‐time climate scenario and published known ranges were highly correlated (r = 0.81). Overall, reptile climate‐niche space was projected to move northward in the future. Sixty‐eight percent of species were projected to expand their current climate‐niche space rather than to shift, contract, or remain stable. Only 8.5% of species were projected to lose climate‐niche space in the future, and these species primarily occurred in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. We found few species were projected to lose all suitable climate‐niche space at the state or province level, although species were often predicted to occupy novel areas, such as at higher elevations. Most squamate species were projected to increase their climate‐niche space in future climate scenarios. As climate niches move northward, species are predicted to cross administrative borders, resulting in novel conservation issues for local landowners and natural resource agencies. However, information on species dispersal abilities, landscape connectivity, biophysical tolerances, and habitat suitability is needed to contextualize predictions relative to realized future niche expansions.

The Neotropics are a global biodiversity hotspot that has undergone dramatic land use changes over the last decades. However, a temporal perspective on the continental-wide distributions of species in this region is still missing. To unveil it, we model the entire area of occupancy of five Neotropical carnivore species at two time periods (2000–2013 and 2014–2021) using integrated species distribution models (ISDMs) in a Bayesian framework. The carnivores are the jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi), margay (Leopardus wiedii), maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), tayra (Eira barbara), and giant otter (Pteronura brasiliensis). We mapped the temporal change, the areas where gains and losses accumulated for all species (hotspots of change) and calculated the temporal species turnover and change in spatial turnover. We show that (1) most carnivore species have declined their area of occupancy (i.e., range size) in the last two decades, (2) their diversity has decreased over time, mostly in the Chaco region, and (3) that hotspots of fast species composition turnover are in Chaco, the Caatinga region, and northwest of Mexico. We discuss how these newly identified hotspots of change overlap with regions of well-known and pronounced land use transformation. These estimated patterns of overall decline are alarming, more so given that four out of the five species had been classified as not threatened by IUCN. The official global threat status of these species may need to be re-evaluated. All this would be invisible if standard forecasts, local expert knowledge, or static threat criteria, such as range size, were used. We thus provide a new approach to evaluate past species range dynamics based on multiple lines of evidence, which can be employed over more species in the future, particularly in under-sampled regions.

Aim In this study, we sought to understand how the Linnean shortfall (i.e., the lack of knowledge about species taxonomy) interacts with the Darwinian shortfall (i.e., the lack of knowledge about phylogenetic relationships among species), which potentially jeopardises geographical patterns in estimates of speciation rates.LocationNew World.TaxonCoralsnakes (Serpentes: Elapidae).MethodsWe created an index of taxonomic uncertainty (ITU) that measures the likelihood of current species being split after undergoing future taxonomic revisions. The ITU was used in simulations where species with higher taxonomic uncertainty had a higher likelihood of having their phylogenetic branches split, generating new hypothetical species along their geographic ranges. We estimated the speciation rates before and after the split of taxonomically uncertain species.ResultsWe found that a high number of coralsnake species display substantial taxonomic uncertainty, positively correlated with the latitude of the species' geographical range centroid. The estimated speciation rates based on currently available data have a weak relationship with latitude. However, after incorporating taxonomic uncertainty into the phylogeny, we detect a higher positive correlation between speciation rate and latitude.Main ConclusionsThe observed change in speciation rates following the incorporation of taxonomic uncertainty highlights how such uncertainty can undermine the empirical evaluation of geographical patterns in speciation rates, revealing an interaction between the latitudinal taxonomic gradient and the latitudinal diversity gradient. Given that taxonomic changes can alter the number of species recognised as valid over time, our study highlights the need to incorporate taxonomic uncertainty into macroecological and macroevolutionary studies, enhancing the robustness of patterns inferred from these data.

Abstract Gymnophthalmids are a diverse lineage of Neotropical lizards that present challenges in the understanding of their phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history. Using a densely sampled phylogeny and distribution data, we investigated their biogeography at the family level. Dividing South and Central America into 12 regions, we tested six biogeographic models considering dispersal-extinction, vicariance, and founder events. Our analysis revealed high taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism in the Andes, Amazon, and Guiana Shield. The best-fit model identified the Guiana Shield as the likely ancestral area of the family, with dispersal events dominating over vicariance. Key areas for species interchange were the Amazon, Northern Andes, and Guiana Shield. The core regions of diversification included the Andes, Amazon, and Guiana Shield, with elevated species richness and biotic interchange events during the Eocene and Oligocene. The Guiana Shield stood out as a stronghold of gymnophthalmid diversity, driven by dispersal rates and ancient lineages. Our findings challenge previous hypotheses about the diversification of these lizards, suggesting a colonization pattern from lowlands to high elevations rather than the South-to-North Speciation Hypothesis for Andean lineages.

Leopardus wiedii and Leopardus pardalis are endangered small felids. Its main altitudinal range expands from sea level to 1,500 m. Camera traps were placed in the Matawi Indigenous Park on the Nevado de Toluca Volcano. Photographic records were obtained of L. wiedii at 3,207 masl and of L. pardalis at 3,307 masl. This is the highest altitudinal record for margay in its distribution, and for ocelot is the highest in the northern hemisphere.