Norman Asa Wood

ABSTRACTAimTropical niche conservatism (TNC) and dispersal limitation (DL) are major ecological and evolutionary mechanisms in shaping taxonomic and phylogenetic β‐diversities. While these mechanisms have been studied in plants and vertebrates, their roles in freshwater taxa remain unclear. We leveraged Odonata species distribution and phylogenetic data to map geographical patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic β‐diversities, and to determine whether Odonata β‐diversity is primarily shaped by TNC or DL and whether temperature seasonality is a key driver determining TNC.LocationEastern China.Time PeriodPresent.Major Taxa StudiedOdonata.MethodsA moving window containing nine grids of 50 × 50 km was employed to quantify taxonomic and phylogenetic β‐diversities, including their turnover and nestedness components. A null model was utilised to calculate randomly expected phylogenetic β‐diversity based on observed taxonomic β‐diversity and site‐specific regional species pools. The generalised dissimilarity model was used to assess the roles of climatic and geographic distances shaping β‐diversity and to identify the key climatic factors.ResultsTaxonomic total β‐diversity and its turnover component were generally higher than phylogenetic β‐diversity in most Odonata communities, with phylogenetic β‐diversity being relatively higher mainly in tropical regions. Current climatic factors independently explained slightly more of the variation in total β‐diversity than geographic distance alone, while geographic distance independently explained slightly greater proportions of deviance in turnover components. However, their joint effects accounted for an even larger part of the variation in β‐diversity. The key climatic predictors were temperature seasonality.Main ConclusionsCurrent climatic factors, particularly temperature seasonality, largely shape taxonomic and phylogenetic β‐diversities of Odonata communities. Spatial turnover along the climatic gradient tends to involve phylogenetically related taxa, resulting in overall higher taxonomic than phylogenetic β‐diversity, supporting the TNC. The joint effects of climatic and geographic distances highlight the roles of climate, interacting with topographic complexity, shaping taxonomic and phylogenetic β‐diversities of Odonata in eastern China.

We analysed the wild bee community sampled from 1921 to 2018 at a nature preserve in southern Michigan, USA, to study long-term community shifts in a protected area. During an intensive survey in 1972 and 1973, Francis C. Evans detected 135 bee species. In the most recent intensive surveys conducted in 2017 and 2018, we recorded 90 species. Only 58 species were recorded in both sampling periods, indicating a significant shift in the bee community. We found that the bee community diversity, species richness and evenness were all lower in recent samples. Additionally, 64% of the more common species exhibited a more than 30% decline in relative abundance. Neural network analysis of species traits revealed that extirpation from the reserve was most likely for oligolectic ground-nesting bees and kleptoparasitic bees, whereas polylectic cavity-nesting bees were more likely to persist. Having longer phenological ranges also increased the chance of persistence in polylectic species. Further analysis suggests a climate response as bees in the contemporary sampling period had a more southerly overall distribution compared to the historic community. Results exhibit the utility of both long-term data and machine learning in disentangling complex indicators of bee population trajectories.

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18‐years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast).Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year−1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges.Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity.Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges.We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges.This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

Biologists have long wondered how sexual ornamentation influences a species' risk of extinction. Because the evolution of condition‐dependent ornamentation can reduce intersexual conflict and accelerate the fixation of advantageous alleles, some theory predicts that ornamented taxa can be buffered against extinction in novel and/or stressful environments. Nevertheless, evidence from the wild remains limited. Here, we show that ornamented dragonflies are less vulnerable to extinction across multiple spatial scales. Population‐occupancy models across the Western United States reveal that ornamented species have become more common relative to non‐ornamented species over >100 years. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that ornamented species exhibit lower continent‐wide extinction risk than non‐ornamented species. Finally, spatial analyses of local dragonfly assemblages suggest that ornamented species possess advantages over non‐ornamented taxa at living in habitats that have been converted to farms and cities. Together, these findings suggest that ornamented taxa are buffered against contemporary extinction at local, regional, and continental scales.

Context Shifts in climate and land use have dramatically reshaped ecosystems, impacting the distribution and status of wildlife populations. For many species, data gaps limit inference regarding population trends and links to environmental change. This deficiency hinders our ability to enact meaningful conservation measures to protect at risk species. Objectives We investigated historical drivers of environmental niche change for three North American weasel species (American ermine, least weasel, and long-tailed weasel) to understand their response to environmental change. Methods Using species occurrence records and corresponding environmental data, we developed species-specific environmental niche models for the contiguous United States (1938–2021). We generated annual hindcasted predictions of the species’ environmental niche, assessing changes in distribution, area, and fragmentation in response to environmental change. Results We identified a 54% decline in suitable habitat alongside high levels of fragmentation for least weasels and region-specific trends for American ermine and long-tailed weasels; declines in the West and increased suitability in the East. Climate and land use were important predictors of the environmental niche for all species. Changes in habitat amount and distribution reflected widespread land use changes over the past century while declines in southern and low-elevation areas are consistent with impacts from climatic change. Conclusions Our models uncovered land use and climatic change as potential historic drivers of population change for North American weasels and provide a basis for management recommendations and targeted survey efforts. We identified potentially at-risk populations and a need for landscape-level planning to support weasel populations amid ongoing environmental changes.

Understanding species distributions and predicting future range shifts requires considering all relevant abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Resource competition has received the most attention, but reproductive interference is another widespread biotic interaction that could influence species ranges. Rubyspot damselflies (Hetaerina spp.) exhibit a biogeographic pattern consistent with the hypothesis that reproductive interference has limited range expansion. Here, we use ecological niche models to evaluate whether this pattern could have instead been caused by niche differentiation. We found evidence for climatic niche differentiation, but the species that encounters the least reproductive interference has one of the narrowest and most peripheral niches. These findings strengthen the case that reproductive interference has limited range expansion and also provide a counterexample to the idea that release from negative species interactions triggers niche expansion. We propose that release from reproductive interference enables species to expand in range while specializing on the habitats most suitable for breeding.

Advances in technology have equipped paleobiologists with new analytical tools to assess the fossil record. The functional traits of vertebrates have been used to infer paleoenvironmental conditions. In Quaternary deposits, birds are the second-most-studied group after mammals. They are considered a poor paleoambiental proxy because their high vagility and phenotypic plasticity allow them to respond more effectively to climate change. Investigating multiple groups is important, but it is not often attempted. Biogeographical and climatic niche information concerning small mammals, reptiles, and birds have been used to infer the paleoclimatic conditions present during the Late Pleistocene at San Josecito Cave (~28,000 14C years BP), Mexico. Warmer and dryer conditions are inferred with respect to the present. The use of all of the groups of small vertebrates is recommended because they represent an assemblage of species that have gone through a series of environmental filters in the past. Individually, different vertebrate groups provide different paleoclimatic information. Birds are a good proxy for inferring paleoprecipitation but not paleotemperature. Together, reptiles and small mammals are a good proxy for inferring paleoprecipitation and paleotemperature, but reptiles alone are a bad proxy, and mammals alone are a good proxy for inferring paleotemperature and precipitation. The current paleoclimatic results coupled with those of a previous vegetation structure analysis indicate the presence of non-analog paleoenvironmental conditions during the Late Pleistocene in the San Josecito Cave area. This situation would explain the presence of a disharmonious fauna and the extinction of several taxa when these conditions later disappeared and do not reappear again.

Determining which traits allow species to live at higher elevations is essential to understanding the forces that shape montane biodiversity.For the many animals that rely on flight for locomotion, a long‐standing hypothesis is that species with relatively large wings should better persist in high‐elevation environments because wings that are large relative to the body generate more lift and decrease the aerobic costs of remaining aloft. Although these biomechanical and physiological predictions have received some support in birds, other flying taxa often possess smaller wings at high elevations or no wings at all.To test if predictions about the requirements for relative wing size at high elevations are generalizable beyond birds, we conducted macroecological analyses on the altitudinal characteristics of 302 Nearctic dragonfly species.Consistent with the biomechanical and aerobic hypotheses, species with relatively larger wings live at higher elevations and have wider elevation breadths—even after controlling for a species' body size, mean thermal conditions, and range size. Moreover, a species' relative wing size had nearly as large of an impact on its maximum elevation as being adapted to the cold.Relatively large wings may be essential to high‐elevation life in species that completely depend on flight for locomotion, like dragonflies or birds. With climate change forcing taxa to disperse upslope, our findings further suggest that relatively large wings could be a requirement for completely volant taxa to persist in montane habitats.

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5–23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.

1. Historical museum records provide potentially useful data for identifying drivers of change in species occupancy. However, because museum records are typically obtained via many collection methods, methodological developments are needed in order to enable robust inferences. Occupancy‐detection models, a relatively new and powerful suite of statistical methods, are a potentially promising avenue because they can account for changes in collection effort through space and time.