David Heinrich Hoppe

An analysis of the current potential range of the Pleistocene relict plant species Schoenus ferrugineus and modeling of changes in its future range under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change in the middle and second half of the 21st century were carried out. The MaxEnt program was used for modeling. Climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids, and a digital elevation model were used as predictors. Modeling has shown that climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the suitability of S. ferrugineus habitat conditions by the mid-21st century. The predicted changes in the distribution of habitats of S. ferrugineus, a diagnostic species of calcareous mires and an indicator of their ecological state, indicate a possible strong transformation of wetland complexes in the Southern Urals region even under moderate climate change. A reduction in the distribution of S. ferrugineus at the eastern limit of its range will also be facilitated by more frequent extreme droughts. To maintain the distribution of S. ferrugineus on the eastern border of its range, a number of measures are proposed to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, contributing to the preservation of the hydrological regime of calcareous mires.

Climate change has been suggested as an important human-induced driver for the ongoing sixth mass extinction. As a common response to climate change, and particularly global warming, species move toward higher latitudes or shift uphill. Furthermore, rapid climate change impacts the biotic interactions of species, particularly in the case of Zygaenid moths which exhibit high specialization in both habitat and host plant preferences. Iranian Zygaenidae are relatively well-known and represent a unique fauna with a high endemism rate (46%) in the whole Palearctic; as such they are a good model group to study the impact of climate change on future distributions. In this study, we used species distribution models (SDMs) and ensembles of small models (ESMs) to investigate the impact of climate change on the future distribution of endemic and non-endemic species of zygaenids, as well as their larval host plants. Three different climate scenarios were applied to forecast the probable responses of the species to different climate change intensities. Our results suggest that the central and southern parts of the country will be impacted profoundly by climate change compared to the northern regions. Beyond this, most endemic species will experience an altitudinal shift from their current range, while non-endemic species may move towards higher latitudes. Considering that the regions with higher diversity of zygaenids are limited to mountainous areas, mainly within the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot, the identification of their local high diversity regions for conservation practices has a high priority.

This research aims to predict the potential distribution patterns of Brant's oak ( Quercus brantii Lindl.) and Hungarian oak ( Quercus frainetto Ten.) using three different climate models: HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and INM-CM5-0, all with a spatial resolution of 30 s (1 km 2 ). These models were developed for CMIP 6 and utilize scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for various time periods spanning from 2041 to 2100. To compare the current potential distribution area with those of the periods for different climate models, a change analysis was conducted. The study area covers distribution areas extending from the coastline of Portugal to the southwest of Iran. When comparing the medium–low and high forcing climate models based on the climate sensitivity, we observed that the distribution patterns of both species vary depending on the scenario and time period. Compared to the current distribution, suitable areas of Quercus brantii Lindl. expected to decrease as 84% (109,854 km 2 ) for HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model and SSP5-8.5 scenario 2081–2100 time period. On the other hand, suitable areas of Quercus frainetto Ten. expected to increase as 59% (618,848 km 2 ) for INM-CM5-0 climate model and SSP5-8.5 during the time period 2081–2100. When it comes to change analysis result, HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate model and SSP5-8.5 scenario project the most significant alterations in the distribution areas of Quercus frainetto Ten. and Quercus brantii Lindl. during the time period 2081–2100, resulting in a loss of 763,046 km 2 and 220,759 km 2 , respectively. The results of the change analysis indicate that the areas marked as loss and gain for both species exhibit differences between the climate change scenarios and time periods. The findings of this research highlight that climate models offer a technological approach to adaptive forest management, enabling the development of strategies to mitigate issues related to climate change.

Predicting the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced into new areas remains one of conservation’s greatest challenges and, consequently, it is necessary to adopt adequate management measures to mitigate the effects of future biological invasions. At present, not much information is available on the areas in which non-native aquatic plant species could establish themselves in the Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models were used to predict the potential invasion risk of (1) non-native aquatic plant species already established in the peninsula (32 species) and (2) those with the potential to invade the peninsula (40 species). The results revealed that the Iberian Peninsula contains a number of areas capable of hosting non-native aquatic plant species. Areas under anthropogenic pressure are at the greatest risk of invasion, and the variable most related to invasion risk is temperature. The results of this work were used to create the Invasion Risk Atlas for Alien Aquatic Plants in the Iberian Peninsula, a novel online resource that provides information about the potential distribution of non-native aquatic plant species. The atlas and this article are intended to serve as reference tools for the development of public policies, management regimes, and control strategies aimed at the prevention, mitigation, and eradication of non-native aquatic plant species.

Nymphoides peltata (yellow floating-heart), native to Eurasia, is an invasive plant in the USA, where it grows in relatively isolated but widespread populations. The species is capable of sexual reproduction by seed and asexual reproduction through fragmentation. Although N. peltata is recognized as a noxious weed, little is known about its geographic region of origin or its dispersal mechanisms and relative amount of genetic variation in its adventive range. We conducted a genetic analysis of N. peltata by studying 68 localities across the native range and 47 localities in the adventive range, using microsatellite markers to determine genetic variability within and among populations, and to infer regions in the native range from which invasive plants originated. A large number of sites in the USA were genetically identical to one another, and there were two predominant multilocus allele phenotypes that were distributed in the northern and southern latitudes, respectively. Additional USA sites were similar to one of the predominant genetic profiles, with greater genetic diversity in southern populations. The genetically identical sites are consistent with asexual spread, potentially via anthropogenic mechanisms. Plants across the USA range were observed to produce viable seeds, and some genetic variation could be explained by sexual reproduction. All USA plants were more similar to plants in Europe than they were to plants in Asia, indicating that the plants likely were introduced originally from Europe. The existence of two genetic clusters and their similarity to plants in different parts of Europe constitute evidence for at least two N. peltata introductions into the USA.

Background Poa annua (annual bluegrass) is an allotetraploid turfgrass, an agronomically significant weed, and one of the most widely dispersed plant species on earth. Here, we report the chromosome-scale genome assemblies of P. annua’s diploid progenitors, P. infirma and P. supina, and use multi-omic analyses spanning all three species to better understand P. annua’s evolutionary novelty. Results We find that the diploids diverged from their common ancestor 5.5 – 6.3 million years ago and hybridized to form P. annua  ≤ 50,000 years ago. The diploid genomes are similar in chromosome structure and most notably distinguished by the divergent evolutionary histories of their transposable elements, leading to a 1.7 × difference in genome size. In allotetraploid P. annua, we find biased movement of retrotransposons from the larger (A) subgenome to the smaller (B) subgenome. We show that P. annua’s B subgenome is preferentially accumulating genes and that its genes are more highly expressed. Whole-genome resequencing of several additional P. annua accessions revealed large-scale chromosomal rearrangements characterized by extensive TE-downsizing and evidence to support the Genome Balance Hypothesis. Conclusions The divergent evolutions of the diploid progenitors played a central role in conferring onto P. annua its remarkable phenotypic plasticity. We find that plant genes (guided by selection and drift) and transposable elements (mostly guided by host immunity) each respond to polyploidy in unique ways and that P. annua uses whole-genome duplication to purge highly parasitized heterochromatic sequences. The findings and genomic resources presented here will enable the development of homoeolog-specific markers for accelerated weed science and turfgrass breeding .

Low temperature constitutes one of the main barriers to plant distributions, confining many clades to their ancestrally tropical biome. However, recent evidence suggests that transitions from tropical to temperate biomes may be more frequent than previously thought. Here, we study the evolution of cold and frost tolerance in the globally distributed and highly stress-tolerant Salicornieae (Salicornioideae, Amaranthaceae s.l.). We first generate a phylogenetic tree comprising almost all known species (85-90%), using newly generated (n = 106) and published nuclear-ribosomal and plastid sequences. Next, we use geographical occurrence data to document in which clades and geographical regions cold-tolerant species occur and reconstruct how cold tolerance evolved. Finally, we test for correlated evolution between frost tolerance and the annual life form. We find that frost tolerance has evolved independently in up to four Northern Hemisphere lineages but that annuals are no more likely to evolve frost tolerance than perennials, indicating the presence of different strategies for adapting to cold environments. Our findings add to mounting evidence for multiple independent out-of-the-tropics transitions among close relatives of flowering plants and raise new questions about the ecological and physiological mechanism(s) of adaptation to low temperatures in Salicornieae.

Plant adaptation to drought facilitates major ecological transitions, and will likely play a vital role under looming climate change. Mycorrhizas, i.e. strategic associations between plant roots and soil-borne symbiotic fungi, can exert strong influence on the tolerance to drought of extant plants. Here, I show how mycorrhizal strategy and drought adaptation have been shaping one another throughout the course of plant evolution. To characterize the evolutions of both plant characters, I applied a phylogenetic comparative method using data of 1,638 extant species globally distributed. The detected correlated evolution unveiled gains and losses of drought tolerance occurring at faster rates in lineages with ecto- or ericoid mycorrhizas, which were on average about 15 and 300 times faster than in lineages with the arbuscular mycorrhizal and naked root (non-mycorrhizal alone or with facultatively arbuscular mycorrhizal) strategy, respectively. My study suggests that mycorrhizas can play a key facilitator role in the evolutionary processes of plant adaptation to critical changes in water availability across global climates. Phylogenetic comparative analysis using data of 1,638 species of angiosperms and gymnosperms suggests that the evolution of plant adaptation to critical environmental change in water availability across global climates is dependent on mycorrhizas.

Many studies have quantified ecological impacts of individual foundation species (FS). However, emerging data suggest that FS often co‐occur, potentially inhibiting or facilitating one another, thereby causing indirect, cascading effects on surrounding communities. Furthermore, global warming is accelerating, but little is known about how interactions between co‐occurring FS vary with temperature.Shallow aquatic sedimentary systems are often dominated by three types of FS: slower‐growing clonal angiosperms, faster‐growing solitary seaweeds, and shell‐forming filter‐ and deposit‐feeding bivalves. Here, we tested the impacts of one FS on another by analyzing manipulative interaction experiments from 148 papers with a global meta‐analysis.We calculated 1,942 (non‐independent) Hedges’ g effect sizes, from 11,652 extracted values over performance responses, such as abundances, growths or survival of FS, and their associated standard deviations and replication levels. Standard aggregation procedures generated 511 independent Hedges’ g that was classified into six types of reciprocal impacts between FS.We found that (i) seaweeds had consistent negative impacts on angiosperms across performance responses, organismal sizes, experimental approaches, and ecosystem types; (ii) angiosperms and bivalves generally had positive impacts on each other (e.g., positive effects of angiosperms on bivalves were consistent across organismal sizes and experimental approaches, but angiosperm effect on bivalve growth and bivalve effect on angiosperm abundance were not significant); (iii) bivalves positively affected seaweeds (particularly on growth responses); (iv) there were generally no net effects of seaweeds on bivalves (except for positive effect on growth) or angiosperms on seaweeds (except for positive effect on ‘other processes’); and (v) bivalve interactions with other FS were typically more positive at higher temperatures, but angiosperm‐seaweed interactions were not moderated by temperature.Synthesis: Despite variations in experimental and spatiotemporal conditions, the stronger positive interactions at higher temperatures suggest that facilitation, particularly involving bivalves, may become more important in a future warmer world. Importantly, addressing research gaps, such as the scarcity of FS interaction experiments from tropical and freshwater systems and for less studied species, as well as testing for density‐dependent effects, could better inform aquatic ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts and broaden our knowledge of FS interactions in the Anthropocene.

Ostrya carpinifolia Scop. (European Hop Hornbeam) is a native tree in Europe as a species of the Betulaceae family. European Hop Hornbeam has a significant value for the European flora, and assessing the effects of climate change on habitats of species is essential for its sustainability. With this point of view, the main aim of the research was to predict the present and future potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam across Europe. ‘‘IPSL-CM6A-LR’’ climate change model, ninety-six occurrence data, and seven bioclimatic variables were used to predict potential distribution areas with MaxEnt 3.4.1 program. This study applied a change analysis by comparing the present predicted potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam with the future predicted potential distribution under the 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 climate change scenarios. Study results indicated that the sum of suitable and highly suitable areas of European Hop Hornbeam is calculated to be 1,136,706 km 2 for the current potential distribution. On the contrary, 2,107,187 km 2 of highly suitable and suitable areas will be diminished in the worst case by 2100. The most affected bioclimatic variable is BIO 19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), considering the prediction of the species distribution. These findings indicated that the natural ecosystems of the Mediterranean region will shift to northern areas. This study represented a reference for creating a strategy for the protection and conservation of the species in the future.