Troels Myndel Pedersen

Aim The centre-periphery hypothesis (CPH) explains the decline of species abundance towards range limits and how this is driven by increasing ecological marginality. So far, most studies testing the CPH have focused on abiotic factors contributing to marginality, while the role of biotic interactions in limiting species distribution has been neglected. Here, we investigate both drivers' roles in restricting an orchid's range along a broad environmental gradient. Location Atlantic Forest and Pampas grasslands (south and southeastern Brazil). Taxa Sand dune orchid Epidendrum fulgens (Orchidaceae). Methods We integrated empirical data on geographical distribution, pollinator richness and genetic diversity along the entire range of the species to investigate whether range limits match niche limits and whether habitat suitability declines towards low- and high-latitude species ranges. We performed niche models to predict niche limits and used polynomial and linear regression models to investigate the associations between ecological niche and species range as well as to test the relationship between genetic-derived metrics and the geographical and ecological distances. Results Ecological conditions become more marginal towards the edges of the E. fulgens range, with an abrupt variation in precipitation. While pollinator richness increases habitat suitability of E. fulgens in the low-latitude edge range, climate has primarily shaped the species' high-latitude limit. Genetic diversity within populations decreases, while genetic differentiation increases towards both margins, although with a more consistent pattern for the low-latitudinal component. Main Conclusions This study corroborates the predictions of CPH regarding ecological and genetic patterns of variation in space and highlights distinct factors limiting geographical distribution at the opposite margins of a latitudinal and narrowly distributed species. This improves our understanding on how biotic and abiotic variables limit species distribution ranges along latitudinal gradients in an extremely diverse and vulnerable tropical ecosystem, with potential for informing conservation practices.

Several anthropic disturbances, including deforestation, fires, the building of roads and dams, have intensified in Amazon in last decades. These disturbances contribute to an increase in the occurrence and intensity of extreme events, such as more frequent floods and more severe droughts, due to climate change. Along the Amazonian rivers, aquatic herbaceous plants, mainly of the Poaceae family, are very abundant and produce up to three times more biomass than the adjacent flooded forests, and some are considered ecosystem engineers given their structuring role in these environments. Invasive grasses have spread through the Neotropics and are gradually entering the Amazon via the Arc of Deforestation. These invasive species often attain high coverage, suppress other species, and become dominant in both disturbed and pristine habitats. The aim of this study was to establish the current and future distribution patterns of two native ecosystem engineer species (Echinochloa polystachya and Paspalum fasciculatum) and two invasive species (Urochloa brizantha and Urochloa decumbens) in the Amazon Basin. To predict the future climate, we used three scenarios, namely SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 for the years 2040, 2080 and 2100, to project climatically suitable areas. The current climatically suitable range for the native ecosystem engineer species was estimated at 33–35% of the Amazon Basin, while the invasive ones have a range of 53–84% in potential climatically suitable areas. A decrease in the areas of suitability of the two ecosystem engineer species, E. polystachya and P. fasciculatum, was observed in all scenarios and years, while only the invasive U. brizantha showed an increase in suitable areas in all years. These results raise concerns about the invasion of grasses with high aggressive potential that could result in the exclusion of native ecosystem engineer species and their ecological roles.

Plant adaptation to drought facilitates major ecological transitions, and will likely play a vital role under looming climate change. Mycorrhizas, i.e. strategic associations between plant roots and soil-borne symbiotic fungi, can exert strong influence on the tolerance to drought of extant plants. Here, I show how mycorrhizal strategy and drought adaptation have been shaping one another throughout the course of plant evolution. To characterize the evolutions of both plant characters, I applied a phylogenetic comparative method using data of 1,638 extant species globally distributed. The detected correlated evolution unveiled gains and losses of drought tolerance occurring at faster rates in lineages with ecto- or ericoid mycorrhizas, which were on average about 15 and 300 times faster than in lineages with the arbuscular mycorrhizal and naked root (non-mycorrhizal alone or with facultatively arbuscular mycorrhizal) strategy, respectively. My study suggests that mycorrhizas can play a key facilitator role in the evolutionary processes of plant adaptation to critical changes in water availability across global climates. Phylogenetic comparative analysis using data of 1,638 species of angiosperms and gymnosperms suggests that the evolution of plant adaptation to critical environmental change in water availability across global climates is dependent on mycorrhizas.

Many studies have quantified ecological impacts of individual foundation species (FS). However, emerging data suggest that FS often co‐occur, potentially inhibiting or facilitating one another, thereby causing indirect, cascading effects on surrounding communities. Furthermore, global warming is accelerating, but little is known about how interactions between co‐occurring FS vary with temperature.Shallow aquatic sedimentary systems are often dominated by three types of FS: slower‐growing clonal angiosperms, faster‐growing solitary seaweeds, and shell‐forming filter‐ and deposit‐feeding bivalves. Here, we tested the impacts of one FS on another by analyzing manipulative interaction experiments from 148 papers with a global meta‐analysis.We calculated 1,942 (non‐independent) Hedges’ g effect sizes, from 11,652 extracted values over performance responses, such as abundances, growths or survival of FS, and their associated standard deviations and replication levels. Standard aggregation procedures generated 511 independent Hedges’ g that was classified into six types of reciprocal impacts between FS.We found that (i) seaweeds had consistent negative impacts on angiosperms across performance responses, organismal sizes, experimental approaches, and ecosystem types; (ii) angiosperms and bivalves generally had positive impacts on each other (e.g., positive effects of angiosperms on bivalves were consistent across organismal sizes and experimental approaches, but angiosperm effect on bivalve growth and bivalve effect on angiosperm abundance were not significant); (iii) bivalves positively affected seaweeds (particularly on growth responses); (iv) there were generally no net effects of seaweeds on bivalves (except for positive effect on growth) or angiosperms on seaweeds (except for positive effect on ‘other processes’); and (v) bivalve interactions with other FS were typically more positive at higher temperatures, but angiosperm‐seaweed interactions were not moderated by temperature.Synthesis: Despite variations in experimental and spatiotemporal conditions, the stronger positive interactions at higher temperatures suggest that facilitation, particularly involving bivalves, may become more important in a future warmer world. Importantly, addressing research gaps, such as the scarcity of FS interaction experiments from tropical and freshwater systems and for less studied species, as well as testing for density‐dependent effects, could better inform aquatic ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts and broaden our knowledge of FS interactions in the Anthropocene.

Mesoamerican mountains are important centers of endemism and diversity of epiphytes. The Sierra Madre of Chiapas in southeastern Mexico is a mountainous region of great ecological interest due to its high biological richness. We present the first checklist of epiphytes for this region based on a compilation of various information sources. In addition, we determined the conservation status for each species based on the Mexican Official Standard (NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010), endemism based on geopolitical boundaries, spatial completeness with inventory completeness index, richness distribution with range maps, and the relationship between climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) with species richness using generalized additive models. Our dataset includes 9,799 records collected between 1896-2017. Our checklist includes 708 epiphytes within 160 genera and 26 families; the most species-rich family was Orchidaceae (355 species), followed by Bromeliaceae (82) and Polypodiaceae (79). There were 74 species within a category of risk and 59 species considered endemic. Completeness of epiphyte richness suggests that sampling is still largely incomplete, particularly in the lower parts of the mountain system. Species and family range maps show the highest richness at high elevations, while geographically richness increases towards the southeast. Epiphyte richness increases with increased rainfall, although a unimodal pattern was observed along the temperature gradient with a species richness peak between 16-20 C°. The Sierra Madre of Chiapas forms a refuge to more than 40% of all epiphytes reported for Mexico and its existing network of protected areas overlaps with the greatest epiphyte richness.

Biological invasions are a major component of global environmental change with severe ecological and economic consequences. Since eradicating biological invaders is costly and even futile in many cases, predicting the areas under risk to take preventive measures is crucial. Impatiens glandulifera is a very aggressive and prolific invasive species and has been expanding its invasive range all across the Northern hemisphere, primarily in Europe. Although it is currently spread in the east and west of North America (in Canada and USA), studies on its fate under climate change are quite limited compared to the vast literature in Europe. Hybrid models, which integrate multiple modeling approaches, are promising tools for making projections to identify the areas under invasion risk. We developed a hybrid and spatially explicit framework by utilizing MaxEnt, one of the most preferred species distribution modeling (SDM) methods, and we developed an agent-based model (ABM) with the statistical language R. We projected the I. glandulifera invasion in North America, for the 2020–2050 period, under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Our results showed a predominant northward progression of the invasive range alongside an aggressive expansion in both currently invaded areas and interior regions. Our projections will provide valuable insights for risk assessment before the potentially irreversible outcomes emerge, considering the severity of the current state of the invasion in Europe.

The sexual species of the Dilatata complex (Paspalum dasypleurum, P. flavescens, P. plurinerve, P. vacarianum, and P. urvillei) are closely related phylogenetically and show allopatric distributions, except P. urvillei. These species show microhabitat similarities and differences in germination traits. We integrated species distribution models (SDMs) and seed germination assays to determine whether germination divergences explain their biogeographic pattern. We trained SDMs in South America using species’ presence–absence data and environmental variables. Additionally, populations sampled from highly favourable areas in the SDMs of these species were grown together, and their seeds germinated at different temperatures and dormancy-breaking conditions. Differences among species in seed dormancy and germination niche breadth were tested, and linear regressions between seed dormancy and climatic variables were explored. SDMs correctly classified both the observed presences and absences. Spatial factors and anthropogenic activities were the main factors explaining these distributions. Both SDMs and germination analyses confirmed that the niche of P. urvillei was broader than the other species which showed restricted distributions, narrower germination niches, and high correlations between seed dormancy and precipitation regimes. Both approaches provided evidence about the generalist-specialist status of each species. Divergences in seed dormancy between the specialist species could explain these allopatric distributions.

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed’s climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.

Rubus (Rosaceae), one of the most complicated angiosperm genera, contains about 863 species, and is notorious for its taxonomic difficulty. The most recent (1910–1914) global taxonomic treatment of the genus was conducted by Focke, who defined 12 subgenera. Phylogenetic results over the past 25 years suggest that Focke's subdivisions of Rubus are not monophyletic, and large‐scale taxonomic revisions are necessary. Our objective was to provide a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the genus based on an integrative evidence approach. Morphological characters, obtained from our own investigation of living plants and examination of herbarium specimens are combined with chloroplast genomic data. Our dataset comprised 196 accessions representing 145 Rubus species (including cultivars and hybrids) and all of Focke's subgenera, including 60 endemic Chinese species. Maximum likelihood analyses inferred phylogenetic relationships. Our analyses concur with previous molecular studies, but with modifications. Our data strongly support the reclassification of several subgenera within Rubus. Our molecular analyses agree with others that only R. subg. Anoplobatus forms a monophyletic group. Other subgenera are para‐ or polyphyletic. We suggest a revised subgeneric framework to accommodate monophyletic groups. Character evolution is reconstructed, and diagnostic morphological characters for different clades are identified and discussed. Based on morphological and molecular evidence, we propose a new classification system with 10 subgenera: R. subg. Anoplobatus, R. subg. Batothamnus, R. subg. Chamaerubus, R. subg. Cylactis, R. subg. Dalibarda, R. subg. Idaeobatus, R. subg. Lineati, R. subg. Malachobatus, R. subg. Melanobatus, and R. subg. Rubus. The revised infrageneric nomenclature inferred from our analyses is provided along with synonymy and type citations. Our new taxonomic backbone is the first systematic and complete global revision of Rubus since Focke's treatment. It offers new insights into deep phylogenetic relationships of Rubus and has important theoretical and practical significance for the development and utilization of these important agronomic crops.

Paleoclimate reconstructions can provide a window into the environmental conditions in Earth history when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than today. In the eastern USA, paleoclimate reconstructions are sparse, because terrestrial sedimentary deposits are rare. Despite this, the eastern USA has the largest population and population density in North America, and understanding the effects of current and future climate change is of vital importance. Here, we provide terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions of the eastern USA from Miocene fossil floras. Additionally, we compare proxy paleoclimate reconstructions from the warmest period in the Miocene, the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), to those of an MCO Earth System Model. Reconstructed Miocene temperatures and precipitation north of 35°N are higher than modern. In contrast, south of 35°N, temperatures and precipitation are similar to today, suggesting a poleward amplification effect in eastern North America. Reconstructed Miocene rainfall seasonality was predominantly higher than modern, regardless of latitude, indicating greater variability in intra-annual moisture transport. Reconstructed climates are almost uniformly in the temperate seasonal forest biome, but heterogeneity of specific forest types is evident. Reconstructed Miocene terrestrial temperatures from the eastern USA are lower than modeled temperatures and coeval Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, reconstructed rainfall is consistent with modeled rainfall. Our results show that during the Miocene, climate was most different from modern in the northeastern states, and may suggest a drastic reduction in the meridional temperature gradient along the North American east coast compared to today.