Article

Babaçu (Attalea pindobassu Bondar) is a native palm of Brazil's Caatinga Domain. The species has significant socioeconomic value to local communities in the Chapada Diamantina, Northeast Brazil, who employ it for cosmetic, food, and handicraft purposes. We investigated the suitability of habitats of babaçu using Ecological Niche Modeling under current and future climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic), to understand the effects of land use and climate change on the potential distribution of A. pindobassu, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) in long-term conservation of the species. The current distribution model predicted climate suitability of 68,754 km², consisting of 8.04% of the Caatinga area. Our results demonstrate a recent suppression of vegetation cover in the areas of climatic suitability. According to the models designed for SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the suitability areas are being reduced over the years when compared to the current model: i) 2040 reduction of 23.94%; ii) 2060 reduction of 50.7%; iii) 2080 reduction of 64.73%; iv) 2100 reduction of 75.21%. For SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the generated models showed a more accentuated reduction in all evaluated periods: i) 2040 reduction of 37.27%; ii) 2060 reduction of 60.46%; iii) 2080 and 2100 reduction of 100%, indicating probable extinction of the species. A low percentage of climate suitability areas was observed within the PAs, in the current scenario and in the future scenarios. The creation of germplasm banks for ex situ conservation, creation and expansion of PAs, and monitoring of natural populations is crucial to ensure the sustainability of this palm's resources for local communities into the future.